[astrodust]

Imagine you're North Korea. Like you give a fuck if the US starts flying things close to your borders. They know that if the US attacks it's game over for South Korea, so unless the US is willing to throw South Korea under the bus the US won't do a damned thing.

The US will also have to convince China it was attacked in order to get support. Otherwise China will sit out any conflict, as ugly as it might get.

North Korea is really smacking the bear around with a stick here seeing how far they can go before they get bit.

[jonnathanson]

China doesn't want this mess getting any messier. At the end of the day, both Trump and Kim are wild cards, and a simple fuckup could blow nuclear fallout and/or waves of refugees over the Chinese border.

Meanwhile, China can come out a big winner by seizing this opportunity to play the adult in the room while simultaneously embarrassing the US. Trump has handed this win to Xi in a tidy little gift box.

[baklavabook]

You're giving China too much credit. China is the entire reason why North Korea exists. Everyone knows this.

[jonnathanson]

Yes, and North Korea's continued existence is useful to China. If this pet bites the hand the feeds it, China can euthanize it and select a new pet. Plenty of generals ready to take Kim's place and consolidate power over NK with China's assistance.

[justonepost]

Yeah, this is all Chinas fault. No matter what they don't come out looking good.

[helthanatos]

North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.

[jahaja]

That people can casually accept the massive loss of lives this would cause is bewildering.

[lostmsu]

Imagine that person believes, that if that's not done, alternative is WW3. Can you guarantee that's not going to happen? What if they actually nuke something, and then China will follow?

[helthanatos]

Not really. Preserving us is more important than preserving them.

[Aharito]

Even if we just remove the missile sites, and any sort of nuclear ordinance on the first attack, they don't really have nearly as much as they claim capable of hitting Seoul[1], and even then it can only hit the northern 3rd of the city, which is less populated. The city itself has put a lot of work into infrastructure in preparation, enough bunkers and shelters to house 20 million. Yes, it will get hit, people will die, but as long as no nuke comes down, I'd consider than a win, for eliminating such a dangerous tyrant.

Of course, coming to terms with China will be an entirely different matter.

1: https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-th...

[astrodust]

Being shelled so severely that Seoul looks like Pyongyang is not a win here.

[astrodust]

I don't think you have any idea how many pieces of artillery they have, nor how many tunnels there are going beneath the DMZ. They are ready to cause as much destruction and chaos as their 1950s era arsenal can inflict.

It would take thousands of cruise missiles to even dent their defenses. You can't use bombers until the anti-aircraft systems are down. It's going to take hours to finish the job, and even then who knows what they've launched in that time. Seoul is an easy target, very hard to miss.

[sundvor]

I read(1) that only the northern part of Seoul the city is in striking distance of their (somewhat limited in numbers) long range artillery, and that there are lots of shelters e.g. the way the subway system doubles up as being bunkers.

However the civilians part between Seoul and the DMZ, home to millions, is not going to fare exceedingly well - if the North decides to "waste" their ammo on civilians instead of the military that will be hitting them back.

1) https://www.quora.com/Can-North-Korean-artillery-really-kill...

[jonnathanson]

Indeed, it is hard to overstate the damage NK could wreak on Seoul, even in the opening hours of a full scale conflict. Roughly half of the population of SK lives in the greater Seoul metro area. Artillery barages could claim millions of lives, and wreak economic devastation, and we're not even talking about nukes yet. I don't relish the thought of Kim, backed into a corner, fearing total oblivion, his fingers fluttering inches away from the big red button.

[KekDemaga]

I suspect that the US has had the capability to disable ICBMs for some time now. (See patriot missile system and iron dome and remember Regan's star wars project and its not a big leap to make) I think it's just a matter that we don't want to let would be nuclear assailants know until they have already committed.

[hatsunearu]

Yes, it's called the THAAD and it has been recently deployed in SK after a long debate.

[KekDemaga]

I'm thinking that but in an orbital configuration.

[astrodust]

"Mister President, there's been a launch. There's six missiles heading for California and Washington state."

"Not now, I'm busy."

"Put down the phone, Sir. This is isn't a drill."

[arkitaip]

He is afraid he has to answer to the Coca Cola company.