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by YZF 3227 days ago
If I could give myself advice 20 years ago it'd be 70/30 (world) index/(world) bonds and keep doing so. Go a little heavier (80/20) on stocks in times of crisis (>20% correction). That's all. You can just get lucky over a year and confuse that with skill.
2 comments
seanp2k2 3227 days ago
This is what I've basically gone with and I've had good results so far. I basically wanted the most return with the least effort, so I just went for index funds with the lowest expense ratios.

""" There are some potential advantages to the share class structure of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. Although VOO is only a fraction of the size of IVV and SPY, VOO offers the lowest expense ratio of the group, charging just five basis points. """ http://etfdb.com/equity-etfs/closer-look-at-sp-500-options/

I get that SPY is better if you need to liquidate millions on a moments notice, but I'm definitely not there, so the nearly-double expense ratio didn't make sense IMO.

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YZF 3227 days ago
This is the most sensible option for most people.

The tough part will be staying the course if the market crashes, which it will at some point. It'll look like the world is ending and you should be investing in gun powder, canned foods and gold. You need to be comfortable with the idea that it may go down (even 40%-50%) and take a long time to come back up but you can keep buying through that and also get dividends...

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codecamper 3227 days ago
I would love to just buy the market. The market is overvalued. Maybe better to just be short the market at this point or just sit it out?
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YZF 3227 days ago
It's not easy to tell whether the market is overvalued or not. Right now if you believe interest rates and inflation will go up within the next few years to anywhere close to historic norms then the market is probably on the hot side. But if rates stay low for very long durations then the market isn't hot. Also international markets have lower valuations than the US so you get something out of diversifying there. You could consider a little less stock in your mix these days but shorting the market would be an extremely risky proposition - more of a gamble. In the long term even if the market is hot and corrects you're still going to do OK.
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