[Baeocystin]

Don't mistake a curated highlight reel for ground truth.

I used to live in China when I was a kid. There are vast aspects both wonderful and terrible that never seem to make themselves known in the Western world. China has tremendous potential. It also has deep, systemic problems with no easy solution (or even a solution at all) in sight.

[coldtea]

So just like any other country, which is amazing for a 1.x billion behemoth.

[Baeocystin]

No. Amplified. The problems we're having in the West, even today, are a hangnail compared to the societal-structural issues currently facing mainland China.

[mistermann]

Can you give any examples? Undoubtedly there are still numerous problems, but is it not just that they can't fix the entire country simultaneously, and some areas just have to wait their turn?

[_ptgt]

One of the biggest (possibly THE biggest) economic issue facing China in the near future is a demographic crisis resulting from the One Child Policy. A large part of China's economic growth has been the result of the growth of its workforce. Historically, Mao believed "people are power" and encouraged high birth rates--leading to China's gigantic present-day population. This has worked out great in making China an attractive place to manufacture.

As a reaction to the population explosion though, the CCP imposed the One Child Policy in 1980 (1979?). Consequently, China will now start to face the aging and shrinking workforce problem that has slowed Western economies in recent years--except China's version of the problem will be MUCH worse due to the extreme nature of its fertility swings. In fact, I believe the size of China's labor force hit its peak a few years ago.

In addition to the shrinking workforce, a historically rapidly aging society will have to face an explosion in healthcare costs... which tend to be a drag on the economy (though are obviously necessary). Furthermore, China doesn't have the retirement home infrastructure that the West has, which will absolutely need to expand as China has a huge retiring population who have few children compared to the rest of the world.

[mistermann]

Is it not true though that a massive portion of the country remains unindustrialized, so even if on a percentage basis the population is aging, in absolute numbers there will still be plenty of young people from the farms that could take the place of the current manufacturing workforce?

[Baeocystin]

It is not. It is also a matter of education: many of the rural poor would simply not be able to take over non-manual-labor jobs. The severe sex ratio imbalance that resulted from the OCP has also had significant, negative effects on relationships in general.

https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21648715-distorted-sex-r...

[em3rgent0rdr]

Rich poor divide. Transportation. Pollution. Environment. Ethnic separatism/unrest. Energy. Public Health. Rights of criminally accused. And a not quite as well refined legal system...for instance I was reading about how drivers who accidentally hit a pedestrian are actually incentivise to backup to make sure to kill the pedestrians. And the social acceptance and ability to talk freely about social issues in public forums.

[KaoruAoiShiho]

Maybe it's just a difference in perspective, but I see all these problems and I think, wow, China has come so far DESPITE all these issues, yet there is so much more low hanging fruit to be picked and so much more potential to be obtained. All these problems seem incredibly manageable, and many are being fixed rapidly, and with their resolution growth will speed up even faster.

[woodandsteel]

The question is not how far China has come in recent decades, it is what is going to happen in the future. You seem to be taking the position that it is absolutely impossible that China will get in serious trouble and wind up going backwards.

[em3rgent0rdr]

I don't disagree with that. But I do think the lack of free speech/press/elections is a basic foundational problem which will hamper progress on the rest of these problems.

[E6300]

> drivers who accidentally hit a pedestrian are actually incentivise to backup to make sure to kill the pedestrians

Why?

[schoen]

Mostly based on a 2015 Slate article which might not be accurate (in terms of proven cases, as opposed to people's familiarity with the concept).

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2...

http://www.snopes.com/chinese-drivers-kill-pedestrians/

[mistermann]

To me, most of these are works in progress and simply a matter of timing and priority. The others, while they feel very "wrong" when viewed through the eyes of someone raised in our culture, I don't think are necessarily that harmful provided leadership is reasonably benevolent in the aggregate, which is my impression of China.