[KaoruAoiShiho]

Maybe it's just a difference in perspective, but I see all these problems and I think, wow, China has come so far DESPITE all these issues, yet there is so much more low hanging fruit to be picked and so much more potential to be obtained. All these problems seem incredibly manageable, and many are being fixed rapidly, and with their resolution growth will speed up even faster.

[woodandsteel]

The question is not how far China has come in recent decades, it is what is going to happen in the future. You seem to be taking the position that it is absolutely impossible that China will get in serious trouble and wind up going backwards.

[KaoruAoiShiho]

Why would it? Aside from a black swan like a war or a super disease or something. The common list of problems I see are all problems that China always had and like I said, still grew despite those problems. Every single problem I see is becoming less problematic and any tiny bit of progress on them are tailwinds for growth.

[Baeocystin]

The 'Great Leap Forward' killed more people than the entire population of Canada. And that was only a handful of decades ago. The party that did so maintains an iron grasp on power, and corruption at all levels is rampant.

There are many, many Chinese who are working very hard for the betterment of their country, and there are many, many wonderful things about China. But it is virtually impossible to overestimate the difficulties they are going to be facing in the coming years. Their economic success, by becoming the manufacturing powerhouse of the world, has come at tremendous cost, and is not maintainable in the long term. We live in interesting times.

[KaoruAoiShiho]

You still didn't list a single thing :p

[Baeocystin]

Emergentorder's list is a fine start. I didn't see a need to repeat. :)

I recommend watching a few more of the video series that I linked earlier, as well. I've watched several of them since I last posted in this thread, and (for what it's worth) I find his observations accurate and fair, both the good and the bad.

[mistermann]

More like it seems relatively (compared to other countries) unlikely.

[em3rgent0rdr]

I don't disagree with that. But I do think the lack of free speech/press/elections is a basic foundational problem which will hamper progress on the rest of these problems.

[KaoruAoiShiho]

It probably does hamper progress, but China never had free speech since the cultural revolution so it's not like things can get worse, the free speech situation is still much improved from the 70s and the 90s (the 80s were a rare period of relatively free speech). So any political changes will be yet another turbo boost on the economy.

[Baeocystin]

>so it's not like things can get worse

I admire your optimism, but this has yet to be an accurate statement across the entirety of human civilization.

[mistermann]

Lack of free speech brings certain risks, but I don't see any reason that it must necessarily hamper progress. In fact, by simple observation of earth for the last 30 years one could easily come to the opposite conclusion.