[Keyframe]

There seems to be certain momentum behind VR development, but I'm afraid it will fizzle out on mass market. I can't quite put my finger on it, but it (talk about VR) reminds me a lot of talk about VR in 90's, just on a larger scale. I hope I'm wrong, I just don't see it now for some reason. Maybe if it dies out a bit and then another wave comes around with improved tech and maybe riding on the haptics of the future... who knows. As for AR, I don't see it at all. I just don't see it living outside of commercials with happy people clicking on their phones. What I'm sure is that VR, dead or not on the mass market, will continue to live on in niche varieties (as it did after 90's fizzle out) like job trainings (space, military, medicine..) and such.

[mncharity]

This time phones and China exist. Phones will continue to drive display and other tech. China has a dynamic manufacturing sector, to keep churning headsets. And has internet cafes, to support game dev. And VR seems to be catching on in US non-governmental industries like realty.

This VR wave seems much more a "look what we can do with current societal phone experience, and phone manufacturing tech", than a "let's struggle again to make something novel and hope it catches on".

As for AR, how about this - picture sitting down at your work desktop/laptop screen(s), and having lower-than-screen-resolution 3D, with direct hand manipulation, surround you. Not interested?

What else might go badly? The patent trolls are spinning up - BillGates/IntellectualVentures have announced it as a focus. But asia seems still insulated enough to keep going, even if the US sidelines itself. A media freakout seems increasingly unlikely (about VR at least), and would be limited to the US. A game market may grow more slowly than expected, but no longer seems able to vanish. What else?

So while takeoff trajectory is perhaps uncertain, I'm having trouble seeing how this wave might fizzle?

[Keyframe]

I'm just not sure it will succeed this time around (en masse). VR needs killer apps, price going down (it's not only about headset), and even more advanced tech in order to be (more) successful. Everyone's talking about headset/displays, but I can't remember anyone talking much (any) about haptics and total immersion - which would be a right and killer direction.

As for AR, we've seen Pokemon Go as a success. It was a perfect storm. Even if you disregard AR/Camera segment, one could possibly categorise geolocation segment as AR. There are AR apps for museums, but it's debatable how much of a success that is.

Have you used anything with 'hands in the air' for much time? I did use some 3D digitisers with haptic feedback before (in 3D work) and 'gorilla arms' syndrome is real.