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by scottshepard 3363 days ago
This article is critiquing the unstructured get-to-know you interview. It is not critiquing highly structured interviews with clear goals, nor technical challenges, nor references checks or past performance.

In your example, how would you structure a series of questions and procedures to limit the risk of marrying someone who will abandon you or cheat on you? I think you can apply good interview process techniques to this quite well!

1. Have they been divorced or cheated on someone before? People who have been divorced before are much more likely to divorce again. The 50% divorce rate in the US is slightly misleading, as many of the divorces are concentrated in repeat divorcees. In fact, among younger (early to mid twenties) first-time marriages, the divorce rate plummets to something like 15-20%.

2. Have their parents been divorced or cheated? Children of divorced parents are much more likely to get divorced themselves.

3. Have they been physically, emotionally, or sexually abused as a child? People with traumatic early childhood experiences are much more likely to develop trust issues with long-term partners, especially if they never had extensive counseling.

4. Do they have a good relationship with their family? People who have a difficult or unstable relationship with multiple family members are more likely to see tumultuous relationships as a norm.

This is all equivalent to reference checks in a job.

Then a long dating / engagement period is necessary. How do you they treat you during this period? Do they cheat? Are they abusive? Do they leave you during a period of difficulty? Do you have the same religious views? Do you split housework evenly? Do you both want kids? How do you view money? The three most common reasons for a fight among couples are 1) money, 2) housework, 3) free time (and how to spend it).

People who are otherwise happy and well-adjusted adults who get married and then divorce bitterly after 10 years are not the norm. Most divorces can be predicted. And most divorces happen before 2 years of marriage. If you are aware of the warning signs and are not blinded by a "gut instinct" I think you can definitely minimize the potential for marrying a snake -in-the-grass.

3 comments

The trouble with this advice is that, while it's accurate if your one and only goal is to predict the likelihood of someone divorcing or cheating on you, it seems profoundly unfair.

To examine this "unfairness", let's imagine it at its most extreme: a society in which divorcees are so stigmatized that it's practically impossible to ever re-marry; in which children of divorcees are likewise stigmatized; in which victims of child-abuse are further victimized by a society that considers them potential "snakes-in-the-grass". Do we really want to live in such a society?

Obviously I don't think you were advocating this. But it's a thought experiment which demonstrates a classic class of problem: what's good for the individual isn't always good for society, especially taken to extremes.

Isn't that true for any system you use to predict? If you rely on "gut instinct", then you filter out people who aren't good at fooling gut instinct. Ugly people, short people, people with poor social skills, autistics, etc. That's hardly fair either.

If you want to make the most accurate predictions possible, you absolutely should not use gut instinct. If you want to be fair, then have a lottery or select randomly. You can't have both. There's nothing remotely fair about gut instinct. See, e.g. judges giving unattractive people twice the sentences of attractive ones. I can provide tons more examples of stuff like that. Gut instinct should be illegal.

The other problem is that it assumes that divorce is a bad outcome to be avoided, while a long marriage must be successful and happy; neither are axiomatic.
I'm not sure I see your point. What GP is proposing is a risk assessment strategy. If your partner ticks all of those boxes (for example), then you better think long and hard about whether the relationship is viable without being blinded by "love".

Anyone from any background can either rise above their circumstances or fail regardless of the help they get. This should never prevent is from thinking clearly and logically about our future with these people based on their backgrounds or past actions.

Seems like point 1 is possibly just confounding age. They've not divorced yet partly because they've not been married long enough yet.
Point 1 is saying that if you're younger when you get married and it's your first marriage, the marriage is less likely to end in divorce. This is the opposite of what you'd expect if getting divorced was just a matter of time, as younger people have more potential time in which to get divorced.
The trick is asking the right questions.

I know a couple that divorced because one of them didn't want to be monogamous anymore. They tried to make it work, first one way, then the other, but in the end they couldn't. Do you think the other one is more likely to cheat or file for divorce than someone who's never been married?

Children of divorced parents are more likely to get divorced, but I've never seen that statistic controlled for personal and cultural attitudes about divorce.

What I've read suggests that whether someone has experienced a healthy relationship is more predictive of relationship stability than whether they've experienced trauma.

A flawed heuristic may be better than no heuristic, but too much confidence in a flawed heuristic can backfire.

(Incidentally, most divorces happen after 8 years for both first and second marriages.[1] The 50% figure applies to first marriages as well.[2] That doesn't tell the whole story, because young adults now are divorcing less than young adults a generation ago. On the other hand, we don't know if that will remain true; divorce later in life has increased.)

[1] https://www.census.gov/prod/2011pubs/p70-125.pdf

[2] https://familyinequality.wordpress.com/2016/06/08/life-table...