| The trick is asking the right questions. I know a couple that divorced because one of them didn't want to be monogamous anymore. They tried to make it work, first one way, then the other, but in the end they couldn't. Do you think the other one is more likely to cheat or file for divorce than someone who's never been married? Children of divorced parents are more likely to get divorced, but I've never seen that statistic controlled for personal and cultural attitudes about divorce. What I've read suggests that whether someone has experienced a healthy relationship is more predictive of relationship stability than whether they've experienced trauma. A flawed heuristic may be better than no heuristic, but too much confidence in a flawed heuristic can backfire. (Incidentally, most divorces happen after 8 years for both first and second marriages.[1] The 50% figure applies to first marriages as well.[2] That doesn't tell the whole story, because young adults now are divorcing less than young adults a generation ago. On the other hand, we don't know if that will remain true; divorce later in life has increased.) [1] https://www.census.gov/prod/2011pubs/p70-125.pdf [2] https://familyinequality.wordpress.com/2016/06/08/life-table... |