[sketchthat]

If they can hit 500,000 cars by 2018 would you assume they would be able to fulfil all world orders of model 3 by mid-2018?

I'm in Australia and put a deposit on in the morning the day it came out, hoping I'll see the car this year but doubtful.. next year? Maybe.

[manicdee]

We will be getting ours in late 2018 assuming everything goes smoothly for Tesla.

There is ramp-up, LHD priority, and shipping time to factor into the schedule.

[joering2]

Honest question. Its February 2017, you say "late 2018". Why would you be buying anything, including something so expensive as a car, and wait for it more than a year not knowing how much technology will progress in next 12-18 months?

[manicdee]

I expect that Tesla will be driving the technological change, and between now and my car arriving home I expect significant changes in the state of the art.

Chevy got the Bolt to market at the same price Tesla is aiming for with the Model 3, but it's a $25k car with a $35k price tag. If the Bolt makes it to Australia before the Model 3, I may consider it.

In the meantime I view the Model 3 as more than just a car: it's an investment in a company pushing the world to acknowledge that fossil fuels are literal and figurative poison which we need to abandon post-haste.

Driving my Model 3 around will be as much about driving a BEV as it is about providing visual evidence to other road users that the age of the internal combustion engine is over. The Otto cycle ist kaput.

In addition, I contribute to Plan International because I want to help rapidly educate people in impoverished nations so we can keep population levels under control. From the "it is just a car" perspective giving money to poor women in underdeveloped nations is throwing good money after bad. From my perspective it is the best thing I can do to ensure the next generation actually has a world worth living in.

There are probably better ways to accomplish this with the money I have, but driving a BEV and pulling people out of poverty sounds like a decent starting point to me.

[ryanhuff]

Nobody has bought a M3 yet, but people have placed deposits.

[spike021]

I don't think that answers his/her question.

The point being, why would anybody put money down on any car really, when it's a rather significant monetary investment not to be delivered for quite a while.

[mikeash]

It's $1,000. I think a lot of people in the tech community can afford to part with $1,000 for a while. It's fully refundable until you actually convert your reservation into a concrete order, so you can change your mind later.

I'm thinking about getting a second car for my family. I don't need it immediately. A Model 3 sounds like it would be perfect for the job. I put $1,000 down to reserve one just in case. If I decide I don't want it, I'll get my money back. I'll miss out on maybe $15 of interest on that money in the intervening time, big deal.

[joering2]

$15 interest from $1,000 in 18 months? You need a new banker.

[wastedhours]

I know not at the same volumes, but almost all supercars follow that model as well. People will put down their deposits before it's even announced, wait several months for the launch, and then have a build window potentially in the year+ timeframe. Although a small number of units, there's an even higher monetary investment and commitment.

We've not seen it to this extent in the "affordable" scene, but even if you flip it, there's probably enough market demand to be able to wipe your face on the deal if you did want to chase the new shiny thing announced in the meantime (which may or may not have extended build times too).

That being said, I'm with a lot of people here that aren't new car buyers - I know you need new car buyers to have a used car market, but I'm not tuned into the mentality of it all.

[dingaling]

The difference is that generally the supercar is an investment on account of status and strictly limited availability. For example Veyron production ended after 450 cars and if you want one now it's a seller's market.

Mass-market cars on the other hand depreciate as soon as the key is turned. So not only dp depositors lose interest on that $1000 but they also lose in depreciation.

[dagw]

Because you want to be first in line when it does become available. And anyway it's not that big of an 'investment' ($1000) and you can get your money back at any time if you need it or change your mind about the car.

[sketchthat]

I'm thinking the same thing. Would love to see it earlier. At least by the time the right-hand drive market gets it all defects should be out of the car.

[will_hughes]

The one 'advantage' to buying Tesla in Australia is that even if you do get an absurdly long wait times, at least when they deliver you get all the newest fetures.

eg Every Model S delivered to customers in Australia had the Autopilot hardware, because it took that long for them to build and ship them.

[sundvor]

And by then, hopefully the worst initial bugs have been sorted too.