[tbirrell]

"The table above already shows that birth rates go to zero by 2065."

Uh.... This seems incorrect. Sure we can extrapolate the declining birthrate all the way down to zero, but realistically it will level out somewhere since humans will never stop producing more humans. Granted it might be a lower birthrate, but never 0.

[himlion]

I assume he is talking about net birth rate.

[mfsamuel]

He is not, and that is the primary flaw in this analysis.

Estimates that the recent declines in birth rate will continue until 0 annual births, once the birth rate stops the death rate continues at pace, and kills everyone eventually.

Flawed in many ways, but that is the biggest mistake. A good example would be the temperature has dropped 20 degrees in the last month at this rate we will reach absolute 0 in around 2 years.

[hughes]

How would any reasonable person think that all humans will completely stop having children?

It makes about as much sense to me to continue the trend below zero, and assume that eventually people start consuming children.

[merkleee]

Hey, it worked for interest rates.

[hughes]

Zero or negative interest rates can still spur economic growth, unlike birth rates.

[disordinary]

We're already seeing governments like Russia imploring people to reproduce and giving incentives to do so. Also low birth rates in developed countries are in-part affected by the need for both parents to build careers, if the world economy collapses because of declining population (which results in a lack of growth and also soaring healthcare expenses) then we'll probably see reproduction increase again - especially if coupled with the above mentioned incentives.

[ralfd]

Birth rate will never decline to zero, as the next generation will be biased more to whatever it was what made their parents to get kids, and less to what made people childless. For example in the extreme case that Facebook would make people sterile, than some day simply the Amish will rule the US.

[irrational]

Maybe he is thinking that the advent of virtual reality sex will replace real sex so the birthrate really will reach 0 ;-)