[blakeyrat]

The big question is what happens when the Chinese government puts a high priority on getting into aerospace and tries to replicate their own 787s or A-350s.

That said, Boeing's defense contracts might keep is secure regardless of what happens in civil aviation. United Airlines might buy a plane from China (in a decade), but the US Navy certainly wouldn't.

[vwoolf]

what happens when the Chinese government puts a high priority on getting into aerospace and tries to replicate their own 787s or A-350s

I am late to this discussion, but James Fallows wrote China Airborn, a book about precisely this topic! The answer is complicated—if it weren't, he'd not bother writing a whole book about it—but the short answer is that so far China's not succeeded.

China does lots of stuff well and deserves credit for it but is not the indomitable powerhouse sometimes suggested in the media (e.g. http://www.marketplace.org/2015/12/10/world/why-cant-china-m..., although I don't know if this piece or others like it are for real).

[mikeash]

The "quick, cheap, disposable" stereotype of Chinese manufacturing (whether deserved or not) seems like it would be a major hurdle for breaking into the Western civil aviation market. I see a lot of people leery of Airbus due to their approach to computer control and fly-by-wire, and that's without any doubts about their manufacturing care or attention to quality control.

[CydeWeys]

They haven't even cracked the automobile market yet. No one in the west will buy a Chinese car, let alone a Chinese plane.

[toomanybeersies]

They sell Chinese pickup trucks here in New Zealand under the brand "Great Wall".

Everything I've heard about them is that they're unreliable and unsafe to an extreme degree. You're apparently better off buying a 3 year old Toyota Hilux or Nissan Navara for the same price as a brand new Chinese truck.

[CydeWeys]

How long ago did these vehicles go on sale and has there been any improvement in quality since? Japanese and Korean vehicles in general had a rough time entering the US market (decades ago). They did start off being lower quality. But they got better. I wonder if this "Great Wall" manufacturer has it in them to make vehicles that are competitive on a global basis.

[scottm84]

Subaru is a Chinese version of yakuza. They have cracked the market for sure.

Also, mitsubishi can build rockets similar to anything spacex can put up.

[ryhamz]

That feel when you confuse China and Japan.

[scottm84]

Zero confusion whatsoever. I've been over there and sat with them and talked about infrastructure and who gets to use it.

China would have very little reason to enter the broken US car market.

Especially when there is an island sitting right there that is close enough for them to buy their own Mitsubishi 787s

[am183]

Except both are Japanese companies?

[scottm84]

Paper ownership and proximity ownership and value ownership are all very different things on that side of the planet.

Both are Japanese companies in the American version of ownership.

In the proximity version of ownership, both are pirate flags.

[CydeWeys]

Japanese cars aren't manufactured in China. This isn't a tricky situation to unravel.

[greedo]

China has been trying to improve their commercial air industry, but engines have been a problem, both for their airliners and their military jets.

[greglindahl]

Which is why the single-aisle twin-engine commercial jetliner that China is already building uses foreign engines.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919

[DashRattlesnake]

Which is why they're licensing the An-225 and jet engine technology from Ukraine.

http://www.popsci.com/china-will-resurrect-worlds-largest-pl...:

> The second stage of the project will involve the complete transfer of technology, including the 23 ton thrust Progress D-18T turbofan engines, to China, for licensed production of a modernized version in Sichuan Province.