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by stephenbez 3513 days ago
I'm an actual commuter in San Francisco. It is very dangerous. Just last month someone was stabbed on the bus I was about to get on, 1 block away. (http://hoodline.com/2016/10/woman-stabbed-last-night-on-7-ha...)

There are currently 6 crimes per every 100,000 miles on Muni (http://sfgov.org/scorecards/crimes-muni). If you commute 5 miles per day, that's 12,500 miles in a decade. I work near Civic Center, a dangerous area, so I assume it's probably 3x more dangerous than average so the equivalent of 37,000 miles. So each decade I ride transit, I'd be victim of over 2 police reported crimes.
1 comments
galdosdi 3510 days ago
Fair point. Counterpoint: If you commute by private car, how often can you expect to get into a wreck?

I know plenty of people who are terrified of driving in the same way some posters here are terrified of urban crime. It all comes down to what environments you're used to. If you're used to driving down a freeway, you'll routinize and minimize the risk of being in a collision. If you're used to city life, you'll routinize and minimize the risk of being mugged.

Also, once again, transit does not have to mean high crime. You're describing crappy transit systems. So let's improve those.

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stephenbez 3502 days ago
In the US there are 185 crashes per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. (http://www.caranddriver.com/features/safety-in-numbers-chart...)

Given the numbers from the previous post, you should get into 0.02 crashes per decade.

You are about 2.5x more likely to die per mile driven on a city vs highway (http://freakonomics.com/2010/01/29/the-irony-of-road-fear/). Assuming the same ratio for crashes, you'd expect to get into 0.05 crashes per decade.

As a rough estimate, you'd expect to be a victim of a crime on the SF Muni about 40x more often than being in a car crash.

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galdosdi 3500 days ago
> Assuming the same ratio for crashes

Very unlikely, but sure why not

Nevertheless, we're still for some reason comparing to a terrible transit system, the SF Muni. As usual, if you compare car driving to a terrible transit system, you conclude transit sucks.

NYC's transit system used to have terrible crime rates decades ago, but is much safer than the SF Muni poster describes. Many transit systems outside of the US are even better.

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