[KaoruAoiShiho]

Hardware is commoditized but brands are not. Anyone can make handbags but only some can sell them for $5000. Oculus has potential to be as profitable as Apple if they absolutely nail the execution and the experience. But it remains to the be seen if the Rift is an iphone or a newton.

Being tethered to a high end gaming pc "dooms" it to be a niche product. How soon can Oculus either ally with a console or make a console?

[aresant]

Facebook is not trying to build a premium VR business w/margins akin to Apple, that would be completely inverse to their business strategy.

Facebook is much more akin to Google than to Apple because Facebook & Google's primary business is the same - advertising.

And if you're an advertising business your primary objective is driving more eyeballs / more users.

Google's first VR solution demonstrates this - they GIVE it away via Cardboard.

Just look at how Facebook approaches the GearVR initiative - I can't imagine they're making much of a licensing premium but it's dramatically increasing their footprint to be the premier VR solution of Samsung phones (1)

Which is where I come back to why bother with the hardware side as a serious business at all?

Even if I argue that the Oculus Rift is just a red herring to push the medium forward on the hardware side I lose the thread because they seem to be playing such hard defense on the hardware side w/the "app" store . . .

Just release FB Social VR already and win the game, stop damaging your brand w/consumers and developers . . .

(1) http://fortune.com/2016/05/11/oculus-samsung-gear-1-million-...

[eldavido]

So much this.

I saw facebook's earnings last quarter and my jaw dropped. 40% increase in revenue since same quarter last year. Then I took a look at their quarterly report, and the entire thing -- and I mean, like 99% of it -- is about ads. MAU, DAU, publisher and inventory growth, top-level organizational goals about getting more marketers on the platform, etc. The only other two revenue sources they have are hardware sales and payments, and they didn't even break out how much either of those businesses made apart from the broader facebook advertising business. It became extremely clear reading the report that ads is where the focus, attention, and money are going in the company.

I guess Oculus is going to be a giant ad business. Either that, or fb is going to pull off a major win against the innovator's dilemma, where they get so focused on ads that that focus chokes other initiatives within the company.

I don't doubt Oculus (as well as Messenger) have a ton of ad inventory in front of them. But I think it's a mistake to think fb cares about the hardware per se; they don't, it's all just a doorway to their platform.

[L_Rahman]

And even if they try to build a premium hardware division with Oculus, it's unlikely to work. Culture is incredibly sticky and companies rarely succeed in building products that are orthogonal to their culture.

[amaks]

Isn't Oculus Rift a premium VR product?

[JustSomeNobody]

> Oculus has potential to be as profitable as Apple if they absolutely nail the execution and the experience.

No. VR won't be that popular. I know that's hard for people on HN to hear, but it's true. Sure it'll make money selling to geeks and nerds, but that's all.

[hawski]

I think that I partly agree with you on it. It is not hard to imagine two iPhones per person - private one and company one. And yet I doubt that more than one VR in household will be that common. Probably in case of smartphones cost hiding thanks to carrier plans helped in making it popular. Can similar mechanism work for VR? It is true that nowadays you can get additional things with your mobile plan - laptops and tablets for example. But in case of VR you have to consider also beefier machine. GearVR would probably have advantage in this case.

Then it is the issue of having something on your face and not being able to hop-in and hop-out of the experience in case of a second. It makes the experience deeper, but that means you need more time and people don't have time. Even if you play with someone on a console you can, in split second, see them smiling or see that you need to turn off cooker under rice. Never mind about actual appearance of having something on someones pretty face. VR devices are looking probably too Sci-Fi than somewhat elegant iPhone to appeal to public. Elegance appeal to rich people and what appeals to rich people appeals to everyone that would like to be rich. One thing that overcomes elegance is price and it does not apply to VR.

It is deeper experience so it may be closer to cinema than to TV. TV is certainly more popular. I hope that it will enable not only great gaming experiences, but also remarkable development (or professional) environments. Current gen VR is probably not yet there to be used in professional setting, but maybe subsidized by gaming - same as with GPUs - it will get there.

[happyslobro]

VR makes me nauseous. I think it is because of that slight delay in feedback from head motion. Or, maybe it's the awareness that if I actually move around, I'll collide with something.

I think I'm going to stick to large curved screens for now, and hold out for holograms later.

[blahi]

VR is the next on the shelf next to Segway and smart bands and watches.

[amelius]

> No. VR won't be that popular.

Also if you take pr0n-use into consideration?

[chaostheory]

Why?

[JustSomeNobody]

Similar reason to why 3D TV failed; nobody likes stuff on their face.

[kriro]

Not too long ago people assumed that nobody likes to wander around with huge battery packs attached to their smartphones. If the perceived value is great people are willing to put up with a lot of crazy stuff.

Also I know plenty of people who wear glasses to reap the value of better sight. Why isn't it conceptually possible for people to wear other stuff to reap other benefits?

[saiya-jin]

most people with glasses hate glasses, but it's necessary for daily life and survival. i know 0 persons who routinely walk around with battery packs for example, and I work in IT so all techies around me.

as much as I am a tech geek, VR with huge headsets is really niche product. people look like idiots, it's restrictive, many people have health issues with it etc. I'll probably buy a headset after it gains real traction (ie most AAA games will work flawlessly in them), but not sooner.

[JustSomeNobody]

I worked my way through college in the optical industry. People hate wearing glasses. Sure there are a few that do it for fashion, but most would rather never have to put them on.

[gedrap]

I see what you mean. Just to give a different perspective, I'm wearing glasses all the time for the majority of my lifetime (24 y/o now and since I'm 8). For me, it's not that I hate them or something, I just can't imagine life without them. They just became like a body part. Don't love them, don't hate them, they simply exist.

[ethbro]

Do you have any data to back up those assertions? Because they seem pretty "Here is how I feel so therefore it must be that way."

[JustSomeNobody]

No. I just know people. What's going to happen the first time pretty people have a VR party and headshots of all of them with red, sweaty rings around their faces shows up on FB? They'll never put the VR on again, that's what.

[ethbro]

:-) I know people too. And there was a time when looking into a CRT and listening to your modem squawk while the webpage in front of you took 5 minutes to download. The takeaway seems obvious: terrible experience, they'll never use this Internet thing again.

[nightski]

They haven't nailed execution and/or experience. Simple as that. Do they have time to fix it? Maybe. But it's going to be a battle and it doesn't seem like they are in fighting mode.

[vvanders]

Yup, even moreso when HTC is pinning their future(I assume) on the Vive they're going to throw everything the can behind it.

[randiantech]

I think you nailed it. Oculus is order to not become a niche product needs to be sold as part of a console bundle. That would make premium VR to a one pressed button distance. Maybe Project Scorpio + Oculus? Scorpio specs seems to be enough for a good VR experencie.

[kriro]

I agree the hardware requirements are the real downer for mass adoption. I'm eagerly awaiting the Playstation VR headset (preordered) and I agree that next gen XBox is probably the best strategic partner (since it's close to a PC with graphics focus). It'll be interesting who Microsoft partners with.

[onewaystreet]

> Oculus is order to not become a niche product needs to be sold as part of a console bundle

Facebook wants VR to be more than video games. Bundling the Gear with Samsung phones has been a success so far.

[justinlardinois]

> Scorpio specs seems to be enough for a good VR experencie.

That's one of the project's main goals. But my understanding is that Microsoft is developing its own Xbox VR headset.

[amelius]

But in any case, we don't want the company selling the $5000 handbags to be the one setting the industry standards.