[JustSomeNobody]

> Oculus has potential to be as profitable as Apple if they absolutely nail the execution and the experience.

No. VR won't be that popular. I know that's hard for people on HN to hear, but it's true. Sure it'll make money selling to geeks and nerds, but that's all.

[hawski]

I think that I partly agree with you on it. It is not hard to imagine two iPhones per person - private one and company one. And yet I doubt that more than one VR in household will be that common. Probably in case of smartphones cost hiding thanks to carrier plans helped in making it popular. Can similar mechanism work for VR? It is true that nowadays you can get additional things with your mobile plan - laptops and tablets for example. But in case of VR you have to consider also beefier machine. GearVR would probably have advantage in this case.

Then it is the issue of having something on your face and not being able to hop-in and hop-out of the experience in case of a second. It makes the experience deeper, but that means you need more time and people don't have time. Even if you play with someone on a console you can, in split second, see them smiling or see that you need to turn off cooker under rice. Never mind about actual appearance of having something on someones pretty face. VR devices are looking probably too Sci-Fi than somewhat elegant iPhone to appeal to public. Elegance appeal to rich people and what appeals to rich people appeals to everyone that would like to be rich. One thing that overcomes elegance is price and it does not apply to VR.

It is deeper experience so it may be closer to cinema than to TV. TV is certainly more popular. I hope that it will enable not only great gaming experiences, but also remarkable development (or professional) environments. Current gen VR is probably not yet there to be used in professional setting, but maybe subsidized by gaming - same as with GPUs - it will get there.

[happyslobro]

VR makes me nauseous. I think it is because of that slight delay in feedback from head motion. Or, maybe it's the awareness that if I actually move around, I'll collide with something.

I think I'm going to stick to large curved screens for now, and hold out for holograms later.

[blahi]

VR is the next on the shelf next to Segway and smart bands and watches.

[amelius]

> No. VR won't be that popular.

Also if you take pr0n-use into consideration?

[chaostheory]

Why?

[JustSomeNobody]

Similar reason to why 3D TV failed; nobody likes stuff on their face.

[kriro]

Not too long ago people assumed that nobody likes to wander around with huge battery packs attached to their smartphones. If the perceived value is great people are willing to put up with a lot of crazy stuff.

Also I know plenty of people who wear glasses to reap the value of better sight. Why isn't it conceptually possible for people to wear other stuff to reap other benefits?

[saiya-jin]

most people with glasses hate glasses, but it's necessary for daily life and survival. i know 0 persons who routinely walk around with battery packs for example, and I work in IT so all techies around me.

as much as I am a tech geek, VR with huge headsets is really niche product. people look like idiots, it's restrictive, many people have health issues with it etc. I'll probably buy a headset after it gains real traction (ie most AAA games will work flawlessly in them), but not sooner.

[JustSomeNobody]

I worked my way through college in the optical industry. People hate wearing glasses. Sure there are a few that do it for fashion, but most would rather never have to put them on.

[gedrap]

I see what you mean. Just to give a different perspective, I'm wearing glasses all the time for the majority of my lifetime (24 y/o now and since I'm 8). For me, it's not that I hate them or something, I just can't imagine life without them. They just became like a body part. Don't love them, don't hate them, they simply exist.

[ethbro]

Do you have any data to back up those assertions? Because they seem pretty "Here is how I feel so therefore it must be that way."

[JustSomeNobody]

No. I just know people. What's going to happen the first time pretty people have a VR party and headshots of all of them with red, sweaty rings around their faces shows up on FB? They'll never put the VR on again, that's what.

[ethbro]

:-) I know people too. And there was a time when looking into a CRT and listening to your modem squawk while the webpage in front of you took 5 minutes to download. The takeaway seems obvious: terrible experience, they'll never use this Internet thing again.

[JustSomeNobody]

Not sure what you're comparing here. Cable modems replaced analog modems. Ok, wires in wires out. Same. LCD panels replaced CRT displays. Big and bulky to flat.

We're talking putting something on one's _face_. Even if they made it the size and weight of normal glasses, it wouldn't get any where _near_ as popular as geeks and nerds think (hope?) it will. It just won't.

But, hey, let's put a pin in this conversation and revisit it in 5 years. Ok? If I'm wrong, I'll send you lunch.