[dc2447]

It's very dangerous to assume the UK will get the same sort of deal as Norway. Norway has some unique cultural and exononomic attributes that are very different from the UK.

Whilst it is in the interest of the EU to have a trade agreement with UK, the UK does not have a strong negotiating position.

Why would EU member states do anything to help a country that is destabilising the entire EU project.

[achamayou]

Britain is quite unlikely to keep their rebate if they go this route, so they'll end up spending more on the EU than they currently do.

[Aeolos]

The UK was paying 0.3% of their budget for control of 9% of the European Parliament. Following the Norway model, they will keep paying a similar amount of money but control 0% of the parliament.

Excellent choice, my dear Britons, excellent choice.

[NetTechM]

Hardly a majority at 9% though, in most cases 9% is just as good as 0%. lol

[nabla9]

>Why would EU member states do anything to help a country that is destabilising the entire EU project.

It's not help. It's for the benefit of everyone. The whole point of EU is that it's not zero-sum game.

Britain's negotiation position is weakened, but other EU countries want to get access into British markets just as much as Brits want to get into EU markets.

[random_upvoter]

> Britain's negotiation position is weakened

The EU isn't in the greatest shape either.

In the past, it was always Britain vs. Germany and France because Britain was the problem child. As from now, Britain has more possibilities to align closer to Germany OR France -- which may possibly divide the partners, especially because German-French relations have been strained in recent years. The time of Mitterand and Kohl holding hands like lovers has gone.

[jacquesm]

You are sorely mistaken. If anything you'll see a closing of the ranks like hasn't been on display for a very long time.

[nabla9]

>Britain has more possibilities to align closer to Germany OR France

This does not make any sense to me.

Does anyone else think that way? I think you are just freely fantasizing.

[random_upvoter]

I'm just skeptical about this supposition that a firmly united Europe is going to wipe the floor with the UK. This is not some 5 million people nation that you're going to boss around a bit. The UK has one of the longest running systems of government in the world with a diplomatic tradition going back to the power games of 19th century Europe. It has strong ties to the Commonwealth and the United States. While negotiating with the EU it only needs to look after its own interests. Opposite the UK stands the EU consisting of 27 nations, all with their own interests, many of which have to deal with their own eurosceptics at home. There's been mounting discontent about the domineering role of Germany. I believe that things may become very interesting.

[NetStrikeForce]

Because we're stronger together, that's why it's in the interest of the EU to keep the UK in its area of influence.

[lostlogin]

EU influence is precisely what has just been voted out. Presumably the EU has to offer sweeteners to keep the UK close.

[NetStrikeForce]

> EU influence is precisely what has just been voted out.

I said "it's in the interest of the EU to keep the UK in its area of influence." and I don't remember the EU voting to kick out the UK, but quite the other way around.

The EU will work towards keeping the UK close and rebuilding any lost synergies. The problem (for the UK mainly) is that they won't do it at any cost. That means no sweeteners at all. The UK can take it or leave it, but they will not be getting anything better than what they had - and they will keep all the obligations they had (free movement of people and other regulations they wanted to "take back").

Unfortunately that might just grow UKIPs electoral base as they'll feel legitimized to keep blaming the EU for any UK issues. This is what happens when you (Thatcher - if you don't know her just remember she was Pinochet's friend) create a non-working class with nothing to lose that lives out of benefits and then you proceed to destroy state education - you initially get them to vote you in exchange of your charity, until they feel entitled to charity and someone really populist comes around and channels their anger "because you threaten to reduce benefits or the immigrants are taking them... and their jobs, which hasn't existed since the 80s".

The UK is dangerously steering towards a fascist state and the only way to stop it is to improve education, which no recent government has been taking seriously.

Note: In case someone is looking for a flamewar, I'm not saying everyone that voted Leave falls into the demographic described above, but it is a very important demographic inside the UK and especially in North England, Wales and other impoverished areas.

[gonvaled]

I follow you until here:

> Unfortunately that might just grow UKIPs electoral base as they'll feel legitimized to keep blaming the EU for any UK issues.

How would the UKIP be blaming the EU once the UK is out? Whatever the deal the EU offers, good or bad, it's a deal which will be accepted by the UK, a sovereign state. It will not be imposed. Hard to see how they can blame the EU for defending their interests, since I assume the UK will be doing the same.

The only possible explanation here is that the EU is able to force the UK to accept a "bad deal". But that directly contradicts the UKIP narrative, that "the UK is a strong nation, and all regions around the world will be ready to sign deals with it".

[NetStrikeForce]

You're right on your analysis, but you've failed at one thing: Logic and facts do not matter. The EU would be the scapegoat because people buy it.

There's a UKIP MEP right now on Twitter blaming the EU because his toaster doesn't work properly. This is not a joke, this is actually happening.

[lostlogin]

> it's in the interest of the EU to keep the UK in its area of influence. And for better or worse, this is exactly what the UK has rejected.

[NetStrikeForce]

That's what made us think. This has been nothing but a farce, a dick measuring contest inside the Tory party.

The UK will keep being in the EU's are of influence, whether we like it or not.