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by ckastner 3667 days ago
All in stock of a not-yet-profitable company who's stock price has been highly volatile in the past.

I don't mean to disparage Tesla, but rather to emphasize that there's a difference between receiving $325 million in cash, $325 million in blue-chip stock, and these $325 million.

2 comments

THIS! it seems like everyone simply assumes that current stock value = cash value. if it was true, than the offer would be $325m in stock OR in cash. but not even Elon think that offered stocks are worth $325m
That's not true. I think Elon thinks that $325m cash is worth less because he thinks the stock is going to go up, however he needs any cash he can get to grow the company. As a growing company you need cash to grow and must give up stock to do so
If they wanted to guarantee cash, they could've bought a collar by selling calls and buying puts. It would have a very small cost, and the deal's investment bankers could set it up, no problem.

tl;dr: you're both extremely confident, ignorant, and wrong.

If it were that easy, Tesla could do the same. It is not that easy. While you or any other spiv can buy a collar on $10k or even $1m worth of stock for a super short period (1 month, 3 month), it is an entirely different thing to:

- But options for multi-year expiries (because that is how long the disposal will take, after the obligatory lockup)...

- ... in a stock that is 1000x less liquid that your usual AAPL or GOOG...

- ...on a short notice on $325 million worth of stock, i.e. a huge percentage of the free float of the stock, making it impossible to hedge for any bank that offers the collar.

tldr: You are a bit too cocky given your lack of knowledge.

FWIW, Tesla is a high volume stock and over a billion dollars worth of TSLA shares are traded daily. It's comparably liquid to GOOGL.

The full $325m would be about 1.5M shares which would be 15,000 options contracts. Quite a bit, but not too far from the current action in some December strikes (the 50 put has 11,883 open contracts).

tl;dr You could quite easily either divest of the stake outright or protect a large portion of it through options.

Why did you put a tl;dr on a comment that is two sentences?
You can sell stock. SO not much difference, except to Musk who can print stock (and can't print money).
you can't just sell +300M$ of stock like that
4.45M Tesla shares trade ever day. You could liquidate $300m in Tesla stock at less than one day's average volume.
Trading almost 2M shares on a 5M market is a silly thing to do.

More sensibly, tossing out one batch at a time of less than 5% of the market will allow the stock to clear without sinking the market.

So parcel up the 2M into 50 groups of a few tens of thousands and we are cooking with gas.

$300mil in Tesla Stock ~1.4M shares.

The average trade volume is as you say 4.45M shares. Selling an additional 1.4M raises the daily trade volume by 31.4%.

Economics is supply and demand. If you increase supply by a massive amount when not changing demand. The price tanks. Effectively you are killing your own price point and this sales strategy isn't in your favor.

Not in all companies, but in Tesla you sure can.