[rm_-rf_slash]

Question for San Francisco tech workers: if there is a massive recession caused either locally (over-funded companies that don't make money going bust) or globally (China is expected to hold debt over 300% of GDP by 2020), what will you do to protect yourselves?

What languages or frameworks do you recommend learning? Which industries need engineers and are relatively insulated from economic downturns? If the Bay Area slams the brakes on growth, where will you move? What non-tech skills would you recommend brushing up on?

Perhaps most importantly: if things went bust today, how fucked would you be?

[zer00eyz]

Having been through the cycle twice I'm going to tell you a secret.

You could be the greatest developer, who has honed skills in every language and still be in bad shape. What you know has NOTHING to do with your ability to survive.

You need cash on hand. A lot of it. That recommendation about three months in the bank, you should have six months or better yet a year of your current salary. If you get laid off, you better start living lean. Cut every expense you don't need to make that money last as long as possible.

You need to have a network, cause skill alone won't get you work. Its quickly going to turn into "who do you know" and "who can get you in the door". It is vital that you build and maintain these relationships NOW, cause when it hits the fan, its going to be too late.

Honestly, the down has always been good for the bay. There is a lot of "medium talent" in the bay right now, and a down market is very much going to clear all of that out.

[ido]

It's always a good idea to save, but if you get fired in the US do you not get unemployment benefits?

I've been laid off in Austria before (a few years ago, the company I worked for downsized about half its workforce around ~2010) & was IIRC entitled to unemployment benefits for about half as long as I worked there (ended up finding a new job before the benefits ran out).

[arebop]

Unemployment benefits in California* last for 26 weeks, but the maximum benefit is $450/week, enough to cover about half the rent payment on a studio apartment in the Bay Area. Prudent workers save on their own for the possibility of unemployment.

*(corrected from U.S.)

[ido]

Interesting that it's not a percentage of your wage, seeing as you pay more unemployment insurance/social security the more you earn (at least you do in Austria and Germany).

In Austria it was 55% if your net salary IIRC.

[laxatives]

I believe it is tied to wage, but it isn't really designed to support high income earners and has a relatively low ceiling as far as software engineers are concerned.

[rharb]

It is a percentage of your wage, but they have pretty tight lower and upper bounds on it. Where I'm at in Ohio, it's one-half of your average weekly wage, but also constrained within $118-$435 pre-tax.

[vonmoltke]

You can't really talk about unemployment benefits in the U.S. because unemployment is a state matter.

[refurb]

Being pedantic here, but $450/week is $1800 per month. I'm sure there are examples of studios at $3600/month, but I've seen plenty of one-bedrooms in desirable neighborhoods for less than $3600/month (based on last month's Craigslist).

[seanp2k2]

True, and outside of SF you can find studios for under $2k, but unemployment won't additionally cover any living expenses beyond basically base rent.

If times were super hard, you could possibly find a room to rent for $1200 if you get really lucky, $1400-$1600 if not, then try hard to make that remaining $200-$600 cover the rest of your expenses, and good luck if you're not just single, young, able-bodied, and able to find another job in a few months.

[kbenson]

Presumably you could also relocate temporarily to a surrounding area where it's (relatively) cheaper, and bus, drive, and soon possibly train in for anything requiring you be in the city. You should have enough free time on your hands that the time eaten by commuting isn't a problem.

[ChemicalWarfare]

also if SHTF property prices will drop.

there is a dynamic there when once the foreclosure numbers mount, the rental prices stay stable because all those ppl who lose their jobs/houses need to live somewhere but in SF's case the real estate market including the rentals is so over-heated any major hiccup will cause them to drop significantly before stabilizing.

[nedwin]

Unlikely to see a big drop unless something really catastrophic happens. Relatively small drop in 08.

[zer00eyz]

You do get unemployment as well in the states in a LOT of cases, but it never lasts that long. However if your a "contractor" your not paying into the system so no pay out.

[rm_-rf_slash]

Excellent answer, thank you.

[abritinthebay]

Having worked through the 2001 crash and the 2008 crash... it's nothing to do with being a tech worker.

If anything it means that you'll be able to bounce back quicker than others because your skills will be in demand (just not as much as before and it'll take a while to get back to a hiring market).

What will help is financial planning: 3-6 months of expenses in the bank is a good guide. Know how to live frugally, etc.

The recession that happens next is likely to not be as big as 2008 (or as dramatic) but it will eventually happen. You're already seeing the economy and job market slow down due to that + election season nerves.

But it's the same for tech workers as it is for anyone else: financial planning. Not in the "where to invest" sense that HN loves but "how much do you have in liquid assets" and by liquid I mean "if rent is due in a few days can you access that money by then?" kind of liquid.

[narrator]

The most important thing to keep in mind during a downturn is who is funding your company and what is your burn rate? If you're running off revenues and profitable and your market isn't other startups or a bubble area like residential real estate in 2008, you have a good change of making it through. Same goes for if your company is funded by a patient angel investor with lots of money to spare. Otherwise, things probably aren't going to go so well.

[twblalock]

Cultivating personal connections is the most important thing. Keep in touch with your former coworkers who have moved on to other companies. Many jobs are filled by referrals.

I should also point out that after the 2008 crash, none of my tech worker friends were unemployed. That's anecdotal, but whatever. Tech was the first industry to bounce back, and the larger companies didn't lay many people off.

Even if the tech bubble bursts, instead of slowly deflating as I expect it to, I think tech workers will still be the most recession-proof demographic around here.

[thesimpsons1022]

I have a masters in CS so I always assumed if something happened in the field I could try to make it in some other stem related field. But more than likely I'd be screwed, since everyone else would be attempting the same thing.

[ybrah]

Someone somewhere will always need your skills.

[thesimpsons1022]

why?

[superuser2]

It is easy enough to imagine that the current funding climate in the Bay Area is unsustainable.

It is much harder to imagine a world which no longer wants software built.

[mbesto]

> what will you do to protect yourselves?

> What non-tech skills would you recommend brushing up on?

Simple for me - have your clients be based outside of SV, and focus on clients who actually make profits, not those who have funding.

[rconti]

I've got a huge housing payment now, but I've also got money in the bank.

I'm not worried at all. 2008 was nothing but a blip. As I mentioned elsewhere, I don't personally know any tech workers in the valley who lost their jobs. People always freak out for no reason.

However, because hiring was down, if you WERE one of the unlucky 5 or 10%, it takes a longer time to find a job.

Save some cash. There's plenty of time to learn new skills while you're unemployed.

[dharma1]

Farming - people still need to eat