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by ChemicalWarfare 3663 days ago
also if SHTF property prices will drop.

there is a dynamic there when once the foreclosure numbers mount, the rental prices stay stable because all those ppl who lose their jobs/houses need to live somewhere but in SF's case the real estate market including the rentals is so over-heated any major hiccup will cause them to drop significantly before stabilizing.
1 comments
nedwin 3663 days ago
Unlikely to see a big drop unless something really catastrophic happens. Relatively small drop in 08.
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ChemicalWarfare 3663 days ago
From the numbers I've seen the 2008-2012 drop was in a 30% range, considering the ~1 mil average price right now we're talking a 300K drop in value...
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nedwin 3663 days ago
Wow, you're right. 27%. Versus 10% and 11% for DotCom and 90s recession respectively. That's a lot!

"typically lasting 4 years" but 6 for 08 to return to pre-downturn levels. Rough. Glad I'm mostly cash right now though we have been looking...

http://www.paragon-re.com/3_Recessions_2_Bubbles_and_a_Baby

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rconti 3663 days ago
Rents didn't really drop but housing prices did. The closer to SF you are, the less they dropped. Housing prices had recovered by 2012-ish in SF proper, but are probably STILL not back to where they were in places like Morgan Hill.

OTOH I was paying 1385 for a one bedroom apartment in San Carlos just a couple of years ago.

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refurb 3663 days ago
I can't find it right now, but some SF neighborhoods did see rents drop. I remember seeing data for Noe Valley. Basically tenants went to their landlord and said "Give me a rent reduction or I'll move to this apartment that's nicer and cheaper".
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rconti 3663 days ago
That's interesting, but it makes sense -- SF is a city of primarily renters. In more suburban/residential areas, rents went up because people lose their houses and needed somewhere to live. Supply went down, because there was more demand for rental stock but the foreclosed houses largely sat vacant for months or years.

(I actually did 'negotiate' a rent decrease in ~2008 in Santa Clara; they wanted $150/mo MORE, so I pointed to a unit on their website that was $120/mo LESS, and said I wanted to rent that one instead. Needless to say, they made me an offer to stay put, thank god.. having to move across a parking lot would have been miserable. But of course rents in general took off despite this small blip)

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