[dragontamer]

IIRC, Tesla has had only one profitable quarter since 2003, its founding.

Last quarter, they had 1.4 Billion in cash and had a $280 Million shortfall. In ONE quarter.

That's AFTER accounting for the +$350 Million-ish they brought in from the Model 3 pre-orders btw. I don't think they are going to repeat the +350ish thousand preorders at +$1000 cash per anytime soon.

[_ph_]

But they are also growing by about 50% year over year (and more!). In 2015 they sold as many cars as Porsche sold in 2000, this year probably as much as Porsche in 2004. Tesla is spending every dollar they can get hold of into growth. The preorders for the Model 3 equal a possible revenue of 15 Billion alone.

[bidatzi]

Sales went up 50% YoY. Loses went up 83% YoY.

[JBReefer]

They have the Bank of Musk, which is a massive advantage. Apple does have all of that cash on hand, though, so that's less of an advantage if they are truly working on a car.

[marvin]

This doesn't give a completely accurate picture of Tesla's financial situation. Tesla has MASSIVE capital expenditures and will continue to have so for years. They could probably become quite profitable on a quarter-to-quarter basis by stopping all new development and manufacturing investments, but this would kill their possibility of becoming a major auto manufacturer.

The gross margin on Model S is indeed 25%, and the gross margin on Model X is also expected to exceed 25% once volume production is finished ramping up.

[dragontamer]

I disagree.

Tesla only had to go Model S -> Model 3, just as originally planned, and they'd be much more profitable than today. Model X, despite its 25% margins or so, isn't making money due to manufacturing issues. Its too complicated with its Falcon doors, and doesn't really have an impact from a sales or marketing perspective.

Instead, Tesla spends billions ramping up Model X, only for GM Bolt to release before the Tesla Model 3. BMW and other companies are catching up as well.

Even the Nissan Leaf may release a 200+ mile model before Tesla's Model 3, all because of the delays incurred with the Model X divergence.

I really think the Model X divergence was a mistake. If Model 3 launched just a year earlier with more money in the bank, Tesla would be in a much healthier position.

[marvin]

I'm undecided on whether Model X was a mistake even when seen in retrospect. It might be the case. But assuming that it was, Tesla couldn't have known this beforehand. Model S demand turned out to be more than twice as high as Tesla initially expected -- at least six months of the Model X delay was caused by the deliberate decision to increase Model S production rather than carry on with the initial plan to produce Model X right away. Maybe Tesla could have backed water at this point, but I'm not sure that it would have been a good risk-adjusted move, given that Model X represents very good diversification in the premium-vehicle segment. There is low overlap between luxury sedan and luxury SUV buyers.

Model X was initially thought necessary to produce enough revenue through the time at which Li-ion batteries could be produced cheaply enough in large quantities to launch a cheaper, good electric car. That the Model S turned out to be so popular wasn't at all obvious in 2012, when it first entered production.