[marvin]

I'm undecided on whether Model X was a mistake even when seen in retrospect. It might be the case. But assuming that it was, Tesla couldn't have known this beforehand. Model S demand turned out to be more than twice as high as Tesla initially expected -- at least six months of the Model X delay was caused by the deliberate decision to increase Model S production rather than carry on with the initial plan to produce Model X right away. Maybe Tesla could have backed water at this point, but I'm not sure that it would have been a good risk-adjusted move, given that Model X represents very good diversification in the premium-vehicle segment. There is low overlap between luxury sedan and luxury SUV buyers.

Model X was initially thought necessary to produce enough revenue through the time at which Li-ion batteries could be produced cheaply enough in large quantities to launch a cheaper, good electric car. That the Model S turned out to be so popular wasn't at all obvious in 2012, when it first entered production.