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by RP_Joe 3723 days ago
The problem I have with these arguments is they compare all electric vehicles to all internal combustion engines. I don't think that's realistic. Everyone is not going to convert to electric vehicles.

I think it's terrific that there is diversity in the energy base for transportation. This is very healthy for the economy and for the country in general.

While it's true, that these new technologies may require adjustments, sometimes these adjustments can be overstated.

The actual energy usage for many appliances and industry is going down. LED light bulbs and other technologies are lowering the load to the grid. It's not a simple equation. It's a very complex equation and I don't think anyone has spent the time to factor that. At least I have not seen any studies on that.

This electric vehicle movement is not just about electric cars. People are rethinking their transportation. That's very healthy. It would be great if we continue to improve mass transit in America, so that less vehicles of all types are needed. I think many Americans would like to see that.

We're still also in the very early stages of electric vehicle's engineering. It's not a good idea to extrapolate out into the future based upon the technology of today. It's likely these electric vehicles become even more efficient in the future. As we see more volume in the industry, third-party players will also come in with unique ideas and improvements.

This mix of electric and internal combustion is really exciting. I think it's terrific that people are being lured from internal combustion to electric vehicles. The whole system seems to be going in a good direction. I don't agree with the naysayers. The outlook looks very promising.

These electric vehicles continued to sell even though the price of fuel for internal combustion's has fallen. The price of electricity is much more stable than the price of gasoline. This may also help people in making their decisions.

I suspect in the future we will see families with both electric cars and internal combustion. It will not be either or.

1 comments

As more and more people will adopt EVs, you can expect:

- gas stations and car dealers to go bankrupt

- price for maintenance and spare parts to jump

- investment in oil extraction to drop (as demand for oil decreases)

- gas prices to increase at the pump, due to diseconomies of scale within the oil industry and carbon tax

This could quickly translate into a vicious circle, and make ICE as luxurious as horse riding.

I disagree about several of these.

- spare parts: assuming you're talking about spare parts for the new EVs and not the old gas cars, I don't see why. They'll still need spare parts for crash repair, mechanical wear-out, etc. There's more to a car than the propulsion unit, and things will still need to be repaired. It'll be the same supply-and-demand we have now.

- maintenance: maybe. With less overall maintenance being necessary, there might be fewer mechanics and prices could then be higher. But it's easy to do non-engine-related maintenance on cars anyway, and they still need their tires changed, brake pads replaced (though not as much), etc. Tire shops won't see any change at all, I'm sure.

- car dealers: I don't know about this. People still have to buy cars somewhere, and while they might keep EVs a little longer, people usually replace cars now because the interior is getting old and nasty, the paint looks bad and repaints are expensive, it has dents and dings, new models look nice and have fancier electronics, etc. They could go to buying directly from dealers a la Tesla, but that's really orthogonal to gas vs. EV.

- gas stations: small local ones, yes. Interstate rest stops, no. We'll see more large rest stops with charging stations and restaurants all in one complex, so people can recharge for an hour while going to the bathroom and eating lunch/dinner on their road trip. We already have stuff like this, like on the NJ Turnpike. We'll probably also see other businesses integrating food and recharging in one spot: sit-down restaurants that are popular with travelers will likely add recharging facilities, and will advertise this (you'll see a billboard on the highway that says "next exit: Cracker Barrel now with 30 charging stations!").