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by jeromeflipo
3728 days ago
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As more and more people will adopt EVs, you can expect: - gas stations and car dealers to go bankrupt - price for maintenance and spare parts to jump - investment in oil extraction to drop (as demand for oil decreases) - gas prices to increase at the pump, due to diseconomies of scale within the oil industry and carbon tax This could quickly translate into a vicious circle, and make ICE as luxurious as horse riding. |
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- spare parts: assuming you're talking about spare parts for the new EVs and not the old gas cars, I don't see why. They'll still need spare parts for crash repair, mechanical wear-out, etc. There's more to a car than the propulsion unit, and things will still need to be repaired. It'll be the same supply-and-demand we have now.
- maintenance: maybe. With less overall maintenance being necessary, there might be fewer mechanics and prices could then be higher. But it's easy to do non-engine-related maintenance on cars anyway, and they still need their tires changed, brake pads replaced (though not as much), etc. Tire shops won't see any change at all, I'm sure.
- car dealers: I don't know about this. People still have to buy cars somewhere, and while they might keep EVs a little longer, people usually replace cars now because the interior is getting old and nasty, the paint looks bad and repaints are expensive, it has dents and dings, new models look nice and have fancier electronics, etc. They could go to buying directly from dealers a la Tesla, but that's really orthogonal to gas vs. EV.
- gas stations: small local ones, yes. Interstate rest stops, no. We'll see more large rest stops with charging stations and restaurants all in one complex, so people can recharge for an hour while going to the bathroom and eating lunch/dinner on their road trip. We already have stuff like this, like on the NJ Turnpike. We'll probably also see other businesses integrating food and recharging in one spot: sit-down restaurants that are popular with travelers will likely add recharging facilities, and will advertise this (you'll see a billboard on the highway that says "next exit: Cracker Barrel now with 30 charging stations!").