[freyr]

> unless it's a "network effect" situation like a social network, you probably don't need to grow fast.

Uber seems like a weird example of this. It was said (and remains said) that they're operating in a winner-take-all space, and they expanded as if they were a social network.

Despite the aggressive expansion and marketing, a majority of people I know in the Bay Area now use Lyft exculsively. The last few times I've said "I'll get an Uber," somebody's actually paused and said "Wait, why don't we take Lyft?" I'm not even sure why. When asked, they just reply that they don't like Uber for some non-specific reason.

They're expanding around the world and into new products and concepts, but haven't even seemed to nail down a loyal customer base on their home turf. Anecdotally speaking.

[mindcrime]

I am a perfect example of somebody who was a "loyal Uber user." They were here (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) before Lyft, and I was already familiar with them and had an account and all from having used the service while I was in San Francisco visiting. And so when my car broke down and I decided to go car-less for a while, I started using Uber all the time (along with walking and bicycle riding).

And then... Uber lowered their rates. Good for me, right? Rides are cheaper now. BUT... it appears that as a result, a LOT of local Uber drivers have quit doing Uber and over the past month, it's become increasingly difficult to even get an Uber here. More and more often, I fire up the app and get "No UberX available" (and usually no UberXL or UberSelect either). So I installed the Lyft app, and I consistently find that Lyft can get me a ride when Uber can't.

I still usually at least try Uber first just out of habit, but they're definitely ceding ground to Lyft in this area, just due to availability if nothing else.

OTOH, Uber does do some neat stuff... like I noticed that in Portland, they have "UberPedal" where you can get a car with a bike rack. I find myself hoping they expand that to our area, as it would be nice to be able to bike to work, knowing that if it's raining or cold or something later, I can call up an UberPedal bike-rack equipped car for the trip home.

[bsbechtel]

This is interesting because much of what has been written about Uber and lowering prices + surge pricing is the idea that Uber is trying to perfectly match supply and demand. If rides are consistently unavailable, that would be an indicator to me that their pricing is too low, and they aren't doing as good of a job as expected with this.

[s_q_b]

Their service here in Washington, D.C. is awful. I used to love Uber, evangelized it to friends, was even the first to show Sanju Bansal how it worked when we were at a gala. Everyone else was fumbling for their S-Class keys while our twin black Navigator vehicles proceeded to pick us up at the entrance.

That, to me, was the Zenith of Uber. The entire VC set of the city was waiting for cars and drivers gridlocked in the garage and lot, while some kid with an app summoned two fully appointed SUVs as if from nowhere.

I wore Uber shades, tried the various promotions. I was thrilled, absolutely certain that they were one partnership away from Google to automate city transport and leapfrog our ailing transport grid.

Then something changed. The lines between Uber and UberX blurred, and UberX drivers changed from well-dressed folks owner-operating, or working for car fleets, to guys with Jack Daniels hats, ponytails, and (this is literal) body odor.

Uber decreased in quality, both in fleet and drivers. Ubers used to be spit-polished tire-black shined towncars, and the drivers were excellent. Never an open door missed, a bottle of water offered, mints stocked, radio preference, and an AC at a comfortable temperature, which the driver would immediately offers to adjust.

It wasn't just the network that made Uber. It was the service. It literally outclassed the transportation of millionaires, with service options of the Four Seasons at the price of a Motel 6.

The service has now become so bad, that power users are like sailors following the rats off a sinking ship.

Then it's disclosed that one of the main showrunners has been spending all his time on some fucking branding project? And when it's finally released, the material he produced looks like it was created by a sentient bag of cocaine.

"We're particles that unite to form atoms, to something... something... interaction between meatspace and cyberspace.... unity, and particles and shit. Yo, you gonna hit that?"

Are you serious?

In summation: No moat, no network effect. It was nice of you to pave the way for self-driving car fleets, but unless you reorganize management from the bottom of the floor up, your balloon's about to deflate faster than Napster. Peace guys.

*Full disclaimer: I did turn down a second round interview at Uber due to their policies regarding the Americans with Disabilities Act. My consulting rate is $500/hr, and I'd consider fixing this mess with the ADA for half that.

I wish I had the opportunity to speak to your board for five minutes about the damage their ADA policies are causing.

Imagine a girl, unable to move unassisted, alone in the snow, as her driver throws her wheelchair to the curb screaming at how he doesn't accept people "like her."

[TheAceOfHearts]

This is really interesting to me, because I've noticed the same thing in the Bay Area.

I would conjecture that Uber constantly being under attack (i.e. having lots of negative articles about them) has played a significant role in this. So when people have to pick between Lyft and Uber, they go for the one that seems "less evil". Perhaps the reason Lyft doesn't come under fire as much is because they haven't grown enough to divert attention from Uber?

If we consider the long-term outcome, is this actually a problem for Uber? If you move between places where both Lyft and Uber are available, and places that only have Uber, it doesn't seem unreasonable that you'd just stick to using Uber. But anyway, once you have an account with one of the two services, what incentive do you have to create an account with the other one?

[ianstormtaylor]

Uber's problems aren't caused simply by being the frontrunner. They're cultural problems that come from straight the leaders of the company itself. They've repeatedly proven that they are misogynists[1][2][3], and that they don't have the same morals that most people value[4][5].

It's a disturbing trend that some of these unicorn startups are valuing growth at the expense of morals, and that VC's are complicit in pushing for growth above all else. It gives the industry a bad name, and I wish it wasn't so.

Luckily Zenefits seems to be dismantling itself because of its antics, so hopefully it will prove to be a lesson in how not to create a company culture for others in the future.

I can't speak for others, but that's why I always prefer Lyft.

[1]: https://pando.com/2014/10/22/the-horrific-trickle-down-of-as...

[2]: http://www.buzzfeed.com/charliewarzel/french-uber-bird-hunti...

[3]: https://pando.com/2014/02/27/we-call-that-boob-er-the-four-m...

[4]: http://valleywag.gawker.com/more-proof-uber-fights-dirty-aga...

[5]: http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/uber-executive-suggests-dig...

[bragh]

I'm not American, so I'm probably missing a lot of cultural context with the last 2 quotes in [2]. With regards to 3), what's wrong with saying that you would much rather be at a fancy hotel than spending time arguing with city officials? Same for 4), I agree that it's not a good thing to say out memes in real life, but not something to the level of having to bring a PR person with you or have it quoted as proof of you being sexist in an article.

[seivan]

Those sources say more about your credibility than they do about Ubers. I think Uber actually relies on people like yourself, you have to understand that it's slowly harming your validity more than theirs.

To give you a comparison it's like those conspiracy theorists back in the days who claimed NSA was snooping on everyone and then later claimed the president is an Alien from planet Xenu.

[tarsinge]

This is ad hominem, anything substantial about the content of the sources?

[seivan]

You mean apart from their financial and personal incentives? No, not much else. I'm sorry, at some part you draw a line. My line is disparaging the clock that's not even right twice a day isn't considered ad hominem.

Same reason my source about racial discrimination isn't Stormfront, and my source about startups isn't Vox.

Also I wouldn't take what Breitbart has to say about sexist issues at face value either. I'm expecting you to be able to learn that soon enough, I mean you'd give me the same treatment if I shoved a bunch of Daily Mail articles at you. And rightly so.

[tarsinge]

I'd not give you the same treatment, I would discuss the facts (if there is any). For example, is the uber street campaign to destroy Lyft talked in the Gawker article [5] real or not ? (I have no context and no opinion on the issue, so I was genuinely interested)

[ianstormtaylor]

Not sure why I'm bothering to respond, but here are the same stories from a bunch of other publications. My initial comment was just a quick Google search, so the originals and highest SEO'd articles win out. Feel free to accept whichever one you deem a "good enough" source:

[6]: http://www.latimes.com/local/abcarian/la-me-ra-self-inflicte...

[7]: http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/nov/18/uber-worst...

[8]: http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/nov/18/uber-exec-...

[9]: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/ubers-boys-club-wha...

[10]: http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-avions-de-chasse-promoti...

[11]: http://www.fastcompany.com/3037552/uber-cancels-sexist-hot-c...

[12]: http://www.newsweek.com/uber-taxi-e-hailing-riding-app-travi...

[13]: http://www.gq.com/story/uber-cab-confessions?currentPage=1

[14]: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/08/opinion/we-cant-trust-uber...

[15]: http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/11/18/emil-michael-of-ube...

[16]: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/11/acting-like-jer...

[17]: http://www.alternet.org/7-evil-things-uber-did-2014-you-shou...

[18]: http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2014/12/uber-travis-kalanick-...

[19]: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/uber-scandals-timeline-michiga...

It's trivial to verify that a source has the right story, so once verified then conversations should shift from debating the accuracy of the source to the consequences of the story itself.

[patio11]

Coke and Pepsi or, closer to the point, Coke and "sparkling water." Choice of how to reach your destination is less about product differentiation and more about personal differentiation. Some people don't want to be "the kind of person that uses an Uber."

[cgag]

Not sure why this is downvoted. I use Lyft and this feels like why to me.

[AlwaysBCoding]

I always take Lyft over Uber because they actually TELL YOU THE COLOR OF THE CAR on the app. Uber not showing you the color of the drivers car is one of the weirdest UI decisions I can ever remember.

[mindcrime]

I always take Lyft over Uber because they actually TELL YOU THE COLOR OF THE CAR on the app. Uber not showing you the color of the drivers car is one of the weirdest UI decisions I can ever remember.

Yeah, that's one thing Lyft definitely go right. For the life of me, I can't understand why Uber doesn't do that as well.

[skuhn]

It might stem from Uber's roots, since all of the Uber Black cars are by definition black. It is pretty annoying when using their billions of other offerings -- not everyone can spot a particular Honda Civic from two blocks away.

[SeoxyS]

I took a white town car on UberBLACK back in the day. It was pretty cool, it had a disco ball and pink lights inside.

[skuhn]

Interesting, I've used it a bunch over the years and never encountered a non-black car. Which is actually kind of silly when you think about it -- a silver Mercedes is just as classy as a black one, if that's what you're concerned with (I'm actually more interested in getting a livery driver who knows what they're doing).

[bboreham]

Well, that's weird: I got into an argument with my Uber driver at SFO last week because the app said his car was gray and I didn't notice it waiting there because to me it looked black.

Maybe it's supported for different grades of service?

[ajmurmann]

I pretty much stopped using Uber because every time I ask a driver who works for both whom they prefer they tell me that they prefer Lyft. I don't really see much of a difference between the two as a consumer so I use who the drivers prefer.

[nickonline]

But there's other examples of this, McDonalds in the USA is lowest of the fast food but around the world their stores are held to higher standards and output higher quality food.

Maybe Uber has given up on the USA as a whole, the USA after all is only 300 million people in a world of 8 billion+

Why bother competing at all when you can go overseas where there's little to no competition.

[cstejerean]

I think it's popular now in the SV circles (and this site) to hate on Uber. I'm not even sure why, but I'm fairly certain it's localized. I have traveled and used Uber all over the country and internationally as well. They seem to be doing just fine.

[techdragon]

For a while, before WW2, it looked like Germany was "doing fine" under Adolf Hitler too. Doing fine doesn't mean anything, you need to look deeper at the reasons people are hating Uber. There is growing evidence of systemic "social issues" that Uber is either amazingly still ignorant of, or more likely are being wilfully ignorant of in an attempt to maximise their profits. People are just reacting to this evidence based on their individual moral compasses.

[elliotec]

Uber == Nazi Germany

[mattnewton]

That's why you need to use ===

[AI_Overlord]

Fuck me. What does that stand for? I know =,==, but not ===

[freyr]

It's strict equality in JavaScript.

    17 == "17"  // TRUE
    17 === "17" // FALSE

[jonesb6]

Despite the comment you replied to having no substance, I honestly wonder if people associate Uber with German and German with something negative.

[elliotec]

Thats a funny point.

[loumf]

It's not just that "Uber" is a German word, but that it's a word associated with Nazis (via "Deutschland über Alles"). Another association is the Ubermensch:

> The term Übermensch was used frequently by Hitler and the Nazi regime to describe their idea of a biologically superior Aryan or Germanic master race;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%9Cbermensch

When I first heard of Uber, it's what I immediately thought of.

[patmcguire]

I've seen the difference, it's much more pronounced with women. I talk with drivers, a lot drive for women, they notice significantly more women on Lyft.

I've heard a combination of complaints about Uber leadership being dudebros and Uber drivers sexually assaulting riders as the reason why. I don't know if Lyft actually provides a safer ride, but they don't say shitty things in public and don't have as many well known incidents.

[fosk]

Lyft has a lower volume and penetration, which means it's making way less rides than Uber worldwide. That could be a reason. Plus the media finding out that being against Uber brings more clicks.

[oneloop]

Can anyone make a rational argument why uber-type companies are winner takes all?

[usrusr]

Precedents. EBay, Amazon, Facebook and Google pretty much did take it all in their respective core markets. Uber and their investors seem to be taking a similar market capture as a given, freyr (your parent post, if I'm not mistaken) was questioning that. For reasons we seem to agree with.

What might still move uber from a fluent market into a winner takes all position some day would be a shift to their own fleet, either driverless or with employees. That would then be real investment and as such would be much harder to match by a newcomer than the day to day underselling they are currently doing to artificially to balloon themselves up.

[technotony]

The network effects come from the driver side of the market. If you have all the drivers, then you have the quickest pick-up/most availability which means best passenger experience and then most customers. This in turn means best utilization for drivers, so you get more drivers etc etc etc.

[prostoalex]

Network effect usually implies some kind of lock-in. Unless Uber is willing to go exclusive and qualify the drivers as employees, getting more drivers out on the road also means getting more Lyft and Gett drivers on the road, as most will just have multiple apps running.

[pfarnsworth]

It's hard to switch between apps. I've asked all my drivers the same question, and they all say that it's more trouble than it's worth because at least in the Bay Area, there work is constant as an Uber driver.

[woah]

I feel like almost every über I see has a lyft sticker too. The UX of switching apps seems like a minor inconvenience given that most of them use waze to navigate anyway.

[kartickv]

Only until a point, the point of diminishing returns. If an Uber turns up in 5 minutes and an Ola in 6, that's not a significant difference. Similarly, if I have to pay ₹130 for Uber and ₹140 for Ola, that again doesn't matter.

And there are other factors. If a competing service let me choose what model of car turns up (say among nearby ones), I may pick that. After all, a big advantage of these over owning a car is that you can try different models.

I don't think the winner takes all, any more than restaurants are winner take all though in theory restaurants also benefit from higher utilisation, less food wastage, negotiating power over suppliers, etc, as the number of patrons increases. That hasn't led to there being only one restaurant in each neighborhood.

[Eridrus]

I think you're right that there's more of a critical mass requirement than real network effects.

However, I think uber pool/lyft line require a much higher critical mass of users to be effective than the basic lyft/uber services and there may not be enough users to fund more than one of those in some (many?) metro areas.

[subnaught]

Sure, but pretty much every Uber driver I've encountered also drives for Lyft and there doesn't appear to be any mechanism by which Uber can prevent that.

[natrius]

Uber is actively developing ride experiences like UberPool and UberHop that link multiple riders together in ways that can avoid a driver's car ever being empty. If the car isn't empty, they can't turn on Lyft.

[freyr]

Lyft Line does the same. As far as cars not being empty, during non-peak hours the streets of San Francisco are filled with Uber cars driving around with no passengers. I guess Uber Eats or whatever is supposed to fix this. No passenger? Stick a salad in the passenger seat.

[Spooky23]

You tend to coalesce into a few big brands when you sell a commodity with little differentiation.

Also, just as cabs did, über will erect regulatory barriers to entry for smaller players.

[kpennell]

Really makes me happy to hear that Uber is being punished for all the sketchy shit they've pulled over the last couple of years. I thought I was the only one who went for Lyft.

[flashman]

Uber's version of achieving loyalty/lock-in is literally to run the competition into the ground and make sure their customers have no other options. That's a long way from achieving it by offering the best service, and I don't think driver/passenger ratings bridge the gap: it's the difference between encouraging or rewarding good behaviour, and subtly threatening people for breaking the rules.

[mindcrime]

They don't seem to be doing a very good job of "running the competition into the ground lately". Everything I've been hearing is how Lyft is gaining ground on them. I know I've been doing more business with Lyft lately (see above) and from talking to a lot of drivers who do both (or used to do both) I definitely get the vibe that a lot of drivers are dropping Uber (at least in my area).

[tryitnow]

Weird. I've experienced a similar thing, except most people I know haven't given up on Uber, they just prefer Lyft. Not sure why.

And I don't think network effect is all that sustainable of a competitive advantage here. Switching costs are just downloading a new app and entering your credit card information.

Frankly, I think this market is still open in the very long term.