[turkishrevenge]

When you say:

> "This will create wealth. Wealth will mean that art, health and relaxation will be in high demand."

Yes, I agree to an extent. But I must ask, wealth for who? Certainty not for the people no longer employed in the jobs that were "automated away". Other labor markets must exist to absorb those that became unemployed as the result of automation.

> Now 2% of people work on farms, does that mean we have 88% unemployment?

%2 of the population is capable of producing the the labor of 88% (or any number > %2) because of the introduction of technological and methodological advances in farming. Roughly from the middle of the 19th century to the present, the production of food fundamentally changed in character from relatively small-scale primitive production (think horse-drawn plough and peasant or slave labor) to large-scale, technological production (mechanical threshers, high-yield genetically modified seeds, effective pesticides, etc). Agriculture became much like any other industry, and as such, was revolutionized. It was inevitable.

I think as someone else on this thread already pointed out, the other 88%, for the most part, had no other choice than relocate to the population centers seeking work. Many found it as unskilled factory labor. The pay was universally poor, and only through the gains made by widespread unionization of both trade (American Federation of Labor) and unskilled or semi-skilled workers (Congress of Industrial Organizations), were workers able to achieve a livable wage.

> "The more we have robots automate the more wealth we will have, the more wealth we have the the greater the number musicians, artists and yoga instructors we will have"

So basically we will have a society where current industrialists will own the overwhelming majority of robotic labor (property), whereas the rest of use will be "employed" as small scale artisans?

> Creating wealth doesn't destroy jobs long term, "A rising tide raises all boats", however short term many people will be displaced and have no jobs during the transition. (Short term could be many years).

As I said, only if other labor markets exists to absorb the newly unemployed. Whether such markets already exist or are created, is up for society to determine. It may take years for new markets to form, leading high unemployment for quite a while. Historically speaking, when power looms and other such mechanical devices were introduced into factory production, new labor markets did manifest to absorb some of the unemployed in the from of engineers and repairmen. Of course the introduction of machines was not without struggle (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_Riots as an example).

[csmeder]

>"So basically we will have a society where current industrialists will own the overwhelming majority of robotic labor (property), whereas the rest of use will be "employed" as small scale artisans?"

Well kind of. If you have an IQ over 110 you will probably still have a job in the tech industry. With your well paying job you can buy manufactured goods for cheap and still have a bunch left over to spend on artisan goods.

[turkishrevenge]

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data on IT sector employment (http://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm#workforce) the number of IT workers is relatively small compared to the rest of the population.

What about those untold millions not in IT or the sub-110 IQ "morons"? You know, the people that generally make society function? What about them? Do you think they are just going to sit idle? Or will they all be making pottery? Why should I even buy a pot made by human hands? Please.

[csmeder]

Well it's already happening and going to happen more and more. Take a look at Etsy http://www.business-opportunities.biz/2009/04/29/etsycom-is-...

  Total Members: over 2.1 million
  Total Sellers: over 200,000
  Items Currently Listed: over 3.4 million
  Total $ sold (Gross Merchandise Sales)
  2005 = $166,000
  2006 = $3.8 million
  2007 = $26 million
  2008 = $87.5 million
  2009 = $32 million (through March)

[turkishrevenge]

From http://www.etsy.com/about.php:

> "Our mission is to enable people to make a living making things, and to reconnect makers with buyers.

Our vision is to build a new economy and present a better choice:

Buy, Sell, and Live Handmade."

(emphasis mine).

First, to think that we will all move back--and that's what it is, backward movement--toward a day where everyone will be some sort of subsistence producing, small-scale artisan is historically, socially, and technologically ridiculous. It's almost as if society would be moving toward the point where capitalism emerged from feudalism once again, where society would be stratified into a class of techno-elites, and everybody else.

Second, what makes you think that everyone is some sort of artist? What about the mechanic, scientist, or garbage man without "artistic" talent? What happens to them?

Third, $32 million is an incredibly small number compared to the billions even one company makes. What makes you think something like etsy.com would scale? Even if it were to scale out it's operations to the point where it could generate billions, do you really think etsy.com or its brokered artisans would produce item in a one-at-a-time, handmade fashion. Most likely, a new form cottage industry would emerge (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cottage_industry#Cottage_indust...). But that couldn't even work, as historically speaking, cottage production was destroyed by socialized production, e.g. factory work.

[csmeder]

Im going to try one more time and then I'm giving up on trying to explain this. I am not saying that everyone will make hand made goods. I am not saying we will have less machine made goods. I am simply saying that machine made goods are complementary goods of hand made goods. When the complementary product of hand made goods' price becomes cheap/commodity the hand made goods demand grows. This is the same reason Open Source software is good for business in the long run. Check out this article. Joel explains complementary goods http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/StrategyLetterV.html

[turkishrevenge]

Great, you cite Joel Spolsky. Good for you.

But you didn't address a single point that I brought up beforehand.

The original point, if I recall, was that mechanical labor will, at some point in the future be capable of performing the labor done by humans right now. The fact that machines have replaced human labor alone is not a new and certainly not revolutionary in its own right. The revolutionizing aspect of said robotic labor, is the fact that it will widely replace current human labor due to its innate level of sophistication. Think of it: robotic plumbers, teachers, mechanics, doctors, etc. The list goes on and on.

You said that it would make everyone wealthier. I rebutted, stating (quite historically I might add) only those that own the machines will benefit, at least for a time, as they are in fact, private property. Everyone made redundant by mechanized labor (of which there will be many) will need to find new employment. This is fine if a labor market exists to absorb the masses of the newly unemployed, as was the case in the mass exodus and subsequent conversion of the peasant farmer to the city factory worker. But one doesn't exist--at least, not yet.

You propose, as a solution and social necessity, that people will become artisans or instructors--people that produce their own goods or services for sale though some sort of market place. I pointed out how it is historically regressive and naive to think that such an arrangement can operate on the mass scale of manufacture that we currently have. People in this scenario are essentially relegated producing to "complementary" frivolities for society, rather than producing essential goods and services. Never mind that with such widespread mechanical labor, extremely cheap and abundant high-quality goods can be made in a factory.

> I am simply saying that machine made goods are complementary goods of hand made goods. When the complementary product of hand made goods' price becomes cheap/commodity the hand made goods demand grows

I am familiar the concept of complementary goods in neoclassical macroeconomics. Ice cream cones are a complementary good in relation to ice cream. The sale of ice cream and cones have a strong positive correlation. I understand that.

What we are talking about though are not complementary goods. Complementary good are just that--they complement other goods, to produce an amalgamated good that fulfills some need better than it's component parts.

> "machine made goods are complementary goods of hand made goods"

This is wrong. How does a hand-crafted spoon complement a factory manufactured bowl better (which is a subjective term anyway) than a factory manufactured spoon? The answer: it doesn't. I think what you are actually referring (vaguely) to is consumer preference. Only when mass manufactured goods are available cheaply and abundantly in the first place, do consumers begin to seek out the "quaintness" of handmade goods. This is how merchants of such goods differentiate their stock from that which came from a factory. As they may put it, the former was "made with care", while the latter, "rolled off of the assembly line", so to speak. Etsy and other markets like it are niche purveyors, merchants of that which is quaint. That is why they will continue to remain niche.

For whatever reason, that fact that something is hand-made seems to be synonymous with quality in your mind. Hand manufacture works for bowls and knit sweaters, but hardly scales for other, more complex goods. How, pray tell will the same system work for the manufacture of goods like cars, microprocessors, vaccines, etc? Will those kind of goods be sold through etsy.com? No. Never. There was a reason that interchangeable parts came into being--they could be manufactured on a mass scale with the kind of precision only a machine could produce.

The only way what you are describing above will work is if private property is abolished, e.g. the manufacturing segment of society--the factories--is owned and directed by the whole of society, not by the hands of a few capitalists. Those factories would, by definition, have to produce the essential goods necessary for society to function as a precondition. With such a basis then, the economy you describe would could function, as it only deals in secondary goods. As it stands now, the televisions, cars, furniture, etc, we all consume are produced not for human need, but rather for sale as commodities on the open market. The anarchy of production would have to be subjugated. But with such a scenario, why even have the secondary "handmade" market in the first place?

[nradov]

If I have a good job in the tech industry, why would I waste money on artisan goods? Most artisans produce crap (take a look around any arts and crafts fair). Wealthy people like to purchase status symbol luxury goods but they don't throw money away on junk.