[vetinari]

The economic migrants are not going to work and be a tax payers. Even if they wanted to work, there's no work for their qualification. They are going to drain the social support budget and increase the inner pressure in the society.

[morsch]

In the past, 10% of regugees were employed after a year, 50% after 5 years, 70% after 15 years[0]. So it takes a while, unsurprisingly, but your predicitions are not borne out in reality. Of course extrapolating from past experience is just an approximation, so it might take longer; on the other hand there are probably ways to speed up the process.

[0] Figures released by a research institute of the federal government. http://doku.iab.de/aktuell/2015/aktueller_bericht_1514.pdf

[eronhp]

Are you really implying that after 15 years, a 30% unemployment rate is a good outcome?

[morsch]

I'm not implying anything. I'm saying that the GP's predictions of 100% unemployment after unspecified amounts of time are unfounded and digging up some more reasonable numbers.

I suppose a good outcome would see the unemployment rate of refugees converge against the unemployment rate of the non-migrant population (vaguely: 7.9%[0]), or more specifically the unemployment rate of those parts of the non-migrant population with similar levels of qualification (vaguely: 13.3%). Because as these levels converge, it makes less and less sense to think of it as a migration issue and more of a more general labor market issue.

[0] Numbers strictly to get a feel for the broad range, the first is the overall unemployment rate in 2011, the second the unemployment rate of people with basic education; unemployment numbers are a rats nest in the best of cases. http://www.bpb.de/nachschlagen/zahlen-und-fakten/soziale-sit...