[morsch]

In the past, 10% of regugees were employed after a year, 50% after 5 years, 70% after 15 years[0]. So it takes a while, unsurprisingly, but your predicitions are not borne out in reality. Of course extrapolating from past experience is just an approximation, so it might take longer; on the other hand there are probably ways to speed up the process.

[0] Figures released by a research institute of the federal government. http://doku.iab.de/aktuell/2015/aktueller_bericht_1514.pdf

[eronhp]

Are you really implying that after 15 years, a 30% unemployment rate is a good outcome?

[morsch]

I'm not implying anything. I'm saying that the GP's predictions of 100% unemployment after unspecified amounts of time are unfounded and digging up some more reasonable numbers.

I suppose a good outcome would see the unemployment rate of refugees converge against the unemployment rate of the non-migrant population (vaguely: 7.9%[0]), or more specifically the unemployment rate of those parts of the non-migrant population with similar levels of qualification (vaguely: 13.3%). Because as these levels converge, it makes less and less sense to think of it as a migration issue and more of a more general labor market issue.

[0] Numbers strictly to get a feel for the broad range, the first is the overall unemployment rate in 2011, the second the unemployment rate of people with basic education; unemployment numbers are a rats nest in the best of cases. http://www.bpb.de/nachschlagen/zahlen-und-fakten/soziale-sit...