[geebee]

That's an excellent point. I live in an R1 neighborhood, but a buddy of mine lives in a SFH in an R2. He would technically be allowed to convert his SFH into two 3bd/2ba apartments, he could sell one of them, and profit so much that he would cover his entire mortgage with lots left over. While he'd still face permit challenges, this has been done (legally, with all required permits) on his block. However, this remains a relatively rare situation in SF.

I gotta say, for a moment there, I was a tad bit jealous that he had this option.

Yeah, truth is, if large sections of SF were rezoned for multi story dwellings, property owners might very well benefit, since the value of their land could substantially increase. I'm not sure how this would all work out, but it certainly seems like a possibility.

This is why I think that SF's opposition to new development isn't really driven by property owners who wish to maximize the dollar value of their asset. I think it's rooted more in a very preservation minded populace (not always such a bad thing), a left-leaning hostility to "greedy" developers (not always unwarranted), and a deep suspicion of redevelopment projects that they worry will tear out the soul of a community and replace it with something corporate and soulless (plenty of that has happened). There's also a tendency to leave good enough alone (prop 13 insulates property owners from the tax burden of massively rising property values, and many people just aren't interested in more money once they're happy. If you live in a neighborhood you like just the way it is, and you can easily afford it, what do you care if you could make more money tearing down your house and building an apartment building? You're more interested in making sure that doesn't happen right next to you).

In short, San Franciscans will happily vote against their own economic interests (well, their own asset value maximization) in order to "preserve" what they like about where they live.

While we probably agree that the bay area needs more density, I'd be against tearing out the french quarter in New Orleans, even if that would lower the price of housing there. I personally think that the bay area actually can substantially increase density, both in SF and out, and vastly increase excellent light rail (preferably underground) without tearing down old and interesting neighborhoods, and that the city that would emerge would be a richer and more interesting one.

Truth is, I put "preserve" in quotations, because one of the best qualities of San Francisco has been lost. Interesting people, with a half formed idea that is too strange or misunderstood to be funded as a thing, used to be able to move to SF and give it life. That's largely gone, because it's nearly impossible to live in SF without working so hard to pay the rent that you have no time left for things that nobody understands well enough to pay for. You do have to ask yourself what you're preserving and what you're losing. Interestingly, I actually think this will influence tech as much as the arts. There are now career paths in tech that are lucrative and are available more in SF than anywhere else, but there's certainly a wild, misunderstood, and creative side of tech that nobody will fund because they just don't understand it yet, and that requires the freedom of time to tinker. SF may lose this just as surely as it loses interesting non-tech arts and culture.

In fairness, this has also happened in the vastly more dense and urban city of New York. I found this link about the galapagos art project moving to Detroit very interesting: "You can’t paint at night in your kitchen and hope to be a good artist. It doesn’t work that way… If the core competitiveness of the big apple is culture, but actually being an artist in New York City costs you a full time career in another industry, then the best and brightest – the ones our meritocracy would obviously miss the most - won’t allow their work to suffer just to be among our tall buildings."

http://www.galapagosdetroit.com/whydetroit/

Not sure this will work, but my guess is that Patty Smith was right when she said "New York has closed itself off to the young and the struggling. But there are other cities. Detroit. Poughkeepsie. New York City has been taken away from you. So my advice is: Find a new city."

I'm all for building more density in SF, but finding a new city sounds like good advice.

[mtviewdave]

>This is why I think that SF's opposition to new development isn't really driven by property owners who wish to maximize the dollar value of their asset. I think it's rooted more in a very preservation minded populace [...] and a deep suspicion of redevelopment projects that they worry will tear out the soul of a community and replace it with something corporate and soulless (plenty of that has happened).

Even worse has happened in living memory: the Embarcadero Freeway. For those not familiar with it:

https://lostsf.wordpress.com/2010/11/07/the-elephant-obstruc...

I too think that way too much weight is placed on the "NIMBYs stopping new housing supply to drive up their property values" theory. The one friend I know who owns a house in the Mission wants to see more density as he thinks that will drive up the value of his home. And here in Mountain View, over the last few years the voters have become increasingly pro-housing, and the city council is responding.

In the case of San Francisco, there was a lot of truly destructive behavior in the name of progress and development in the 20th century. The development process we see today emerged in reaction to that, in an effort to limit the destruction, and then to roll it back. That doesn't mean that there aren't old hippies who are against anything new, of course. But that doesn't mean that all development ideas are good either.

I really wish everyone would take a good long look at the pictures of the Embarcadero freeway before lecturing people on how it's always wrong to oppose development. NIMBYs need to be reassured, not mocked for thinking there's such a think as bad development.

[DrScump]

"And here in Mountain View, over the last few years the voters have become increasingly pro-housing"

MV is at least as NIMBY as other areas. A few years ago, "preservationists" fought a planned Home Depot at 85 & El Camino out of claimed noise and traffic fears (the lot is literally right next to the freeway). It was forced to the ballot and defeated, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in local sales tax share going elsewhere.

A residential care facility went in there instead. The subsequent reduction in commercial traffic there resulted in the supermarket next door also closing.

[mtviewdave]

I was here for that vote, and "preservation" was not an issue. The lot in question had been unoccupied for about 20 years at that point. People were eager to have it replaced with something useful.

>It was forced to the ballot and defeated

Home Depot voluntary withdrew their application for a zoning variance before it ever received a hearing with the City, and then filed the ballot initiative instead. This unwillingness to even try to work with the city council was seen by voters as arrogance, and led to the measure's defeat.

>A residential care facility went in there instead.

Actually, a (large) medical center went there:

http://www.pamf.org/mountainview/

>The subsequent reduction in commercial traffic there...

Note that since the lot had been unoccupied prior, the construction of the medical center led to an increase, not decrease, in commercial traffic.

>...resulted in the supermarket next door also closing.

The ballot measure was defeated on March 5, 2002. The supermarket closed on November 8, 2014. It seems unlikely the two events are connected.

This level of inaccuracy when arguing against "NIMBYism" is unfortunately common here in Mountain View. Indeed, I've seen worse. Which is why I encourage to people to understand historical context and try to engage with people they think of as NIMBYs rather than just dismiss them out of hand. Even in San Francisco.

[DrScump]

1) "residential care" is my error; I was thinking of the care facility two blocks down, where Cherry Chase Bowl was.

Now regarding the "this level of inaccuracy" snark:

2) "large medical center" is an odd term for a place with neither emergency nor urgent care. And it itself is not commercial traffic given that no (taxable) commerce goes on there.

3) the Lucky supermarket closed in 2014, not the Albertsons that was there in the 2000s.

4) you ignore that there were two different Home Depot proposals (a full store and, later, an Express), at least one of which won Planning Commission approval.

5) "The lot in question had been unoccupied for about 20 years at that point." No, the lot was never unoccupied -- the Emporium building remained into the 2000s. I lived a block away until 1995.

[Kalium]

How do you propose dealing with NIMBYs who refuse to be reassured?

[geebee]

One approach is lawsuits.

http://missionlocal.org/2015/12/sf-group-renews-call-to-sue-...

[Kalium]

As I understand it, that's less about reassurance and more about setting a precedent that can be used to force the NIMBYs into silence.

Which I, personally, love. But perhaps isn't what parent meant by reassuring people.

[hibikir]

A big difficulty of building a new city in the US is that, in the age of the car, we'd not build anything dense enough to feel like a city. I live in a metro area that has a bit over a million people, but in no way does it feel anything like a European city, NY or SF. Without any pressure that makes land expensive, we build wide, single family houses on half-acres.

Just look at the difference between SF and the rest of the bay: SF is interesting because space really is limited, and it's old enough to have been built before the car took the US by storm.

So I have little hope for a place like Detroit, KC, Austin or Chattanooga to ever grow to become an interesting city without some new, technological pressure that makes us all want to minimize car use.

[trgn]

True, the US is kind of a black hole for urbanity, but you'd be surprised how many hidden gems there are.

East coast obviously is not strained for fantastic cities. The South has fantastic places; Charleston, Savannah, New Orleans are rightfully world class (and surprisingly expensive, for a good reason). Ohio Valley cities are charmers in their own right, though urban renewal really did a number on them. Great weather too; sultry heat in summers, relatively mild winters.

Plus, the US can offer attractive urban experiences that you'd be hard pressed to find in European cities. Many streetcar suburbs offer that unique mix of spacious living and convenience within walking distance, where you're often surrounded by stupendously attractive architecture and lush mature greenery.

But you're right of course, the car has absolutely killed the American city, and in most places growth continues to be on the periphery. It's no wonder that SF is so popular, it's really something of a refuge. It's not as an inhuman place as NYC (gargh, what a dump, a city for machines), but it is also not the strip mall wasteland that's most of the US. It really hits that sweet spot IMO, wish I could afford it.

[ghaff]

You do see walkable areas spring up where older downtown cores have gentrified--Raleigh NC is one example I'm personally familiar with. But these walkable cores are typically relatively small.

The cities of the desert Southwest like Phoenix and Las Vegas offer an example of the type of housing people tend to buy (and therefore the type of housing that gets built) when there's plenty of cheap land.

[mjmahone17]

Phoenix is finally hitting the limits of how much it can sprawl. And it's also beginning to produce more walkable communities: downtown Tempe, Chandler and Mesa are all more walkable, and developers are building downtown, walkable apartments, instead of the old parking-lot-centric complexes. While it's still incredibly difficult not to own a car, if you want a walkable lifestyle, it's nearly possible. Just not in midday during the summer.