[cmpaul]

The "short-term car rental hubs... where people who do not own cars can pick up a vehicle and drive for Lyft to earn money" is a nice idea in the short-term. I still think Uber has the right idea long-term with a completely autonomous fleet, but once those hit the market, there will still be a pretty large demand for NON-autonomous vehicles -- take my parents, for instance, who refuse to get into a car not driven by a human.

[InvisibleCities]

>I still think Uber has the right idea long-term with a completely autonomous fleet...

I really disagree here. I think the biggest strength of Uber's business model is that they offload all of the maintenance, fuel, liability, registration, etc. costs (as well as the cost of managing all of that) to the drivers. In addition, local regulators have been treating Uber with kid gloves in a lot of markets because Uber "creates jobs"; when Uber starts getting in the business of putting drivers, both their own and drivers for other companies, out of work, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of markets start making it even harder for them to operate. Don't get me wrong, I'm very excited for autonomous cars, and absolutely think they will be omnipresent in the long-term future, but I don't think Uber will be the company that dominates that market, at least not in the short-to-medium term, and trying to do so will be their Waterloo.

[samscully]

Uber could still offload maintenance, fuel, liability etc to other entities and license the self driving software to them. Those entities would still have much lower operating costs than human drivers. They could even open source the self driving software to commoditise their complements [1].

Personally I hope that regulators do a bait and switch on Uber by allowing them to build a temporary monopoly and then reintroducing competition by introducing the "right to be represented by a bot" [2].

[1] http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/StrategyLetterV.html [2] http://continuations.com/post/108912689660/big-and-bot-polic...

[eCa]

> take my parents, for instance, who refuse to get into a car not driven by a human.

I think people are doing lots of things that they couldn't imagine doing before those things existed/became widespread. How many people would never get a cell phone and has one now?

People need to see that stuff works and then they become adopters.

[danielbln]

Isn't that just a marketing and PR problem, first and foremost?

"The new [insert brand here], safer than any other vehicle ever developed [insert statistic here]. It will bring you where you want to go, fast, safe and while you can tend to the things in life that really matter [insert family/reading/working montage]."

I'm no adman, but I think it won't be too difficult to sell this. And if all fails, lower insurance rates, or rather higher insurance rates for manual drivers, will sway a lot of people.

[Shivetya]

One area I haven't seen mentioned is the loss of human interaction. For many just having someone to talk to/at during the trip is needed.

[flyosity]

I think many people would prefer to sleep, watch movies or read a book than talk to someone for hours in a car.

[samstave]

Here's where it will be a showstopper for me; many many times the uber map has fucked up directions and so I tell the driver the route I want to take, or to pass a particularly slow driver in front, in addition I sometimes change my destination/add a stop.

How easily can I do any of this with a robot car?

[danielbln]

Touch screen panel, make options available to adjust the route taken? Doesn't seem like a hard problem to solve, especially compared to all the other problems that need to be solved to make autonomous cars a reality.

[itchyouch]

Changing the "messed up" directions is a strawman in your head. Sure, in the beginning those complaints would be more prevalent, but as the "rate your ride" complaints get sent up to Google, I'd imagine that there will be an army of people re-training the AI to minimize these kinds of inefficient glitches to the point that they rarely if ever happen. Google does this today with an army of yellow-badge employees who fix Google Maps.

[stanmancan]

Have a big touch screen in the car that shows the destination and the route the car is going to take? And allow you to drag/drop to alter the route similar to Google Maps?

[cvs268]

Eliza and Siri can accompany them...

[imroot]

That's kind of interesting for me to hear.

The last few times that I've rented an Uber, the driver (I usually use the "black car" option) usually shows up in a rented National/Enterprise vehicle (if you rent enough vehicles in a year you can tell the differences between the three big rental companies).

The plates/vehicle description tend to match what arrives for me (e.g., Uber tells me that I'm expecting a Black 300, I get a Black 300); admittedly, I do not know what happens on the back end to add a vehicle (if it's Uber or if it's the driver), but, it seems to me that this is already happening in some areas.

[x5n1]

When that happens you can almost bet that it will be a hypercompetitive market which is likely to eventually be dominated by car manufacturers. I mean why do you need Uber at all when you make the car itself and all of its inside. It's not as if the software to coordinate pickup and drop-offs is rocket science. And neither is customer service. I look forward to how cheap and easy it will be and how the manufacturers will cut out of the middle men out of everything.

[hyperliner]

This is interesting. It's what Christensen's theory of disruption would say, given the time, (lack of) complexity, and the curve of 'good enough.'

The only thing could be branding. There is a reason many people buy iPhones, or bottled water in a fancy plastic container for $5/bottle.

Would we want Uber because it's "better" than GM, which does not have a huge appeal? Then again, a car is a car is a car, if it is on time, clean and cheap.

[itchyouch]

> many people buy iPhones, or bottled water in a fancy...

> a car is a car is a car, if it is on time, clean and cheap.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss branding as being inconsequential.

water may be water, but there's a fairly high expectation to achieve when it comes to user experience that's associated with branding. The minimum the general public will expect is "on time, clean, cheap".

While the HN population may have a significant size of community that looks to optimize for cost, the a large portion (maybe huge subsection?) of the population make choices based on the "premium" experience.

"What you thought I'd call an UberX for you?" "Starbucks is way better than Dunkin Donuts" "iPhones are so much better than Androids" "Voss water is more refreshing." "My Lexus is so much smoother than the Toyota" "Target, where you pay a little more to avoid the people at Walmart."

As asinine as it sounds to us, there's a significant population of vanity that wants to be monetized for the benefits of social signaling and/or the additional desirability of a given brand.

I'd anticipate that the consumer market will be similar to the vehicles available today with the potential following major divisions in autonomous driving.

Value - 5-20+ minute wait times. it may be a little dirty, a little smelly, and sometimes will be nice and clean (nice surprise) but will focus on absolute lowest cost. (Kia, Hyundai, Suzuki level car) $200/mo for 1000mi

Premium experience - 1-15+ min wait times. generally clean & comfortable. (Toyota, Honda, Ford, GM family sedan level car) $200-500/mo for 1000mi

Luxury - 1-5+ min wait times in major suburban counties. high guarantees on wait & cleanliness. Optional personal concierge in car that helps with loading, groceries, etc (BMW, Lexus, Mercedes level car) $300-1000/mo for 1000mi

Executive - dedicated service in the equivalent of a 100k+ car (BMW 7 Series, Mercedes S Class level car) $2500+/mo for 500mi, $5000/mo for unlimited mileage.

With all that said, catering to these different markets may require quite a bit of pivoting for existing car manufacturers and of administrative burden they may not necessarily want or care to deal with. I also see car manufacturers doing something similar to drop ship online stores of today to prevent car buying power aggregating to only a handful of powerful buyers responsible for 95% of the business.

[PantaloonFlames]

> Then again, a car is a car is a car,

also, a phone is a phone

an airline is an airline

a shoe is a shoe

....

Clearly consumers have preferences in any of these markets today. Even in cars today. That won't change with CaaS.

[lighthazard]

Your parents will be irrelevant in 2 or 3 generations from now. At some point, fully autonomous will be a norm without the fear.

[Qworg]

2-3 generations is a long time to make money.

[simonh]

Tell that to Jeff Bezos.

[ProAm]

When do you want your return on investment? Within the next 20 years or within the next 60?

[qzcx]

Hence he said "short term". 2-3 generation from now certainly isn't the short term

[mrtron]

Of course there is a spectrum of trust when it comes to autonomous vehicles.

I refuse to ride in a car driven by many humans, including quite a few close friends who are terrible drivers. I would be very likely to ride in an early autonomous vehicle, and rely on my adaptive cruise control heavily already.

[Shivetya]

How affordable will this be? Example, the rates for fairly current model cars can be near a hundred a day, if not triple by week. So is GM going to cut this rate? Then to top that off if you are in NYC the medallion rental can be over a hundred a shift. This is on top of your gasoline and insurance costs.

Now is lower tier cities costs should be lower but that chunk coming out to rent what I assume is a fairly newer model is going to put a dent in your money making. You are in effect paying the car off for someone else.

[exw]

<<I still think Uber has the right idea long-term with a completely autonomous fleet>>

I agree that this is probably the end state of this space, but I think this is much more Google's than Uber's vision - Uber is terrified of autonomous cars (since it eliminates the supply network effect of their driver network and opens up the space to anyone with deep pockets).

Once autonomous cars become a reality, I think you are going to see a fierce battle between Uber and Google.

[simonh]

>Once autonomous cars become a reality, I think you are going to see a fierce battle between Uber and Google.

Google Ventures invested $258M in Uber in 2013 and are one of it's largest shareholders.

[Naritai]

That doesn't necessarily prove anything. Google and Apple were partners before Android.

[exw]

Google Ventures independent from Google (and goes through pains to point this out when you pitch them). While there is obviously a lot of synergy, Google Ventures employees are not Google employees, and do have not have Google stock options.

Also, if you want to look back through the annals of tech history, many larger companies partner with disrupters when a new technology emerges, only to enter the market when the new technology grows into a significant market.

[luckydata]

how often do your parents have the chance to refuse a ride in a car not driven by a human? Do cars with cat drivers count? What about chimps?