[x5n1]

When that happens you can almost bet that it will be a hypercompetitive market which is likely to eventually be dominated by car manufacturers. I mean why do you need Uber at all when you make the car itself and all of its inside. It's not as if the software to coordinate pickup and drop-offs is rocket science. And neither is customer service. I look forward to how cheap and easy it will be and how the manufacturers will cut out of the middle men out of everything.

[hyperliner]

This is interesting. It's what Christensen's theory of disruption would say, given the time, (lack of) complexity, and the curve of 'good enough.'

The only thing could be branding. There is a reason many people buy iPhones, or bottled water in a fancy plastic container for $5/bottle.

Would we want Uber because it's "better" than GM, which does not have a huge appeal? Then again, a car is a car is a car, if it is on time, clean and cheap.

[itchyouch]

> many people buy iPhones, or bottled water in a fancy...

> a car is a car is a car, if it is on time, clean and cheap.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss branding as being inconsequential.

water may be water, but there's a fairly high expectation to achieve when it comes to user experience that's associated with branding. The minimum the general public will expect is "on time, clean, cheap".

While the HN population may have a significant size of community that looks to optimize for cost, the a large portion (maybe huge subsection?) of the population make choices based on the "premium" experience.

"What you thought I'd call an UberX for you?" "Starbucks is way better than Dunkin Donuts" "iPhones are so much better than Androids" "Voss water is more refreshing." "My Lexus is so much smoother than the Toyota" "Target, where you pay a little more to avoid the people at Walmart."

As asinine as it sounds to us, there's a significant population of vanity that wants to be monetized for the benefits of social signaling and/or the additional desirability of a given brand.

I'd anticipate that the consumer market will be similar to the vehicles available today with the potential following major divisions in autonomous driving.

Value - 5-20+ minute wait times. it may be a little dirty, a little smelly, and sometimes will be nice and clean (nice surprise) but will focus on absolute lowest cost. (Kia, Hyundai, Suzuki level car) $200/mo for 1000mi

Premium experience - 1-15+ min wait times. generally clean & comfortable. (Toyota, Honda, Ford, GM family sedan level car) $200-500/mo for 1000mi

Luxury - 1-5+ min wait times in major suburban counties. high guarantees on wait & cleanliness. Optional personal concierge in car that helps with loading, groceries, etc (BMW, Lexus, Mercedes level car) $300-1000/mo for 1000mi

Executive - dedicated service in the equivalent of a 100k+ car (BMW 7 Series, Mercedes S Class level car) $2500+/mo for 500mi, $5000/mo for unlimited mileage.

With all that said, catering to these different markets may require quite a bit of pivoting for existing car manufacturers and of administrative burden they may not necessarily want or care to deal with. I also see car manufacturers doing something similar to drop ship online stores of today to prevent car buying power aggregating to only a handful of powerful buyers responsible for 95% of the business.

[PantaloonFlames]

> Then again, a car is a car is a car,

also, a phone is a phone

an airline is an airline

a shoe is a shoe

....

Clearly consumers have preferences in any of these markets today. Even in cars today. That won't change with CaaS.