[silphe]

The ranking puts German growth prediction to be almost zero while Japan's to be 2.8? I call this rubbish. Both countries were in the last years demographically pretty similar.

Both countries are however diverging pretty swiftly. While productivity in Japan was falling it was increasing in Germany. Moreover the recent development showed that Germany was making gains in demographics with higher birth rate and net migrations. Japan on the other hand was falling in recession several times in the last 5 years alone. Even without extrapolating the current trend, it is obvious that Japan would not do much with regard to its demographics while Germany's demographics is actually changing very quickly (and rather favorably).

[chimeracoder]

> Moreover the recent development showed that Germany was making gains in demographics with higher birth rate and net migrations... Germany's demographics is actually changing very quickly (and rather favorably).

First, higher birth rate and net migrations are usually a (short-term) drag on GDP, not a boost.

Secondly, you can't look at Germany outside the context of being a member of the EU and Eurozone (and currently a very important creditor in the Eurozone). That has a huge impact on Germany's economy.

[chongli]

you can't look at Germany outside the context of being a member of the EU and Eurozone (and currently a very important creditor in the Eurozone)

This is exactly right. If a few of Germany's key debtors end up defaulting and exiting the Eurozone, a prospect not so far out of the realm of possibility given the leftward political trend in those countries, then Germany could fall on hard times very quickly.

[sremani]

German export oriented economy needs EU and South Europe cannot devalue their currency and pose threat to German export economy. If they move out of EU and devalue their currencies, Germany is in big big trouble. Disintegration of Europe is delayed but very likely narrative of the decade.

[jobu]

> First, higher birth rate and net migrations are usually a (short-term) drag on GDP, not a boost.

This was my thought as well. Germany has publicly declared that they will take 800k refugees (plus there are likely to be several hundred thousand undocumented immigrants). That will be a huge drag on their economy for a few years, but the long term result is projected to be very positive for their economy.

[melling]

Is there some reason that we should believe that Harvard put little thought into their predictions? An hour doesn't go by on the Internet where someone isn't calling something rubbish based on their limited understanding of a given subject.

[tosseraccount]

Fact check: Japan productivity falling?

2009: $31

2013: $36.24

2014: $36.45

source:http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=PDB_LV

(GDP per head of population in USD ppp adjusted)