[chimeracoder]

> Moreover the recent development showed that Germany was making gains in demographics with higher birth rate and net migrations... Germany's demographics is actually changing very quickly (and rather favorably).

First, higher birth rate and net migrations are usually a (short-term) drag on GDP, not a boost.

Secondly, you can't look at Germany outside the context of being a member of the EU and Eurozone (and currently a very important creditor in the Eurozone). That has a huge impact on Germany's economy.

[chongli]

you can't look at Germany outside the context of being a member of the EU and Eurozone (and currently a very important creditor in the Eurozone)

This is exactly right. If a few of Germany's key debtors end up defaulting and exiting the Eurozone, a prospect not so far out of the realm of possibility given the leftward political trend in those countries, then Germany could fall on hard times very quickly.

[sremani]

German export oriented economy needs EU and South Europe cannot devalue their currency and pose threat to German export economy. If they move out of EU and devalue their currencies, Germany is in big big trouble. Disintegration of Europe is delayed but very likely narrative of the decade.

[jobu]

> First, higher birth rate and net migrations are usually a (short-term) drag on GDP, not a boost.

This was my thought as well. Germany has publicly declared that they will take 800k refugees (plus there are likely to be several hundred thousand undocumented immigrants). That will be a huge drag on their economy for a few years, but the long term result is projected to be very positive for their economy.