[bavcyc]

Interesting article.

I can't remember who said it, but humans tend to over-estimate change in the long term, and under-estimate change in the short term.

It will be interesting to see what changes do occur in this time frame.

[yourapostasy]

That is Amara's Law [1]. The paraphrase given by Cringely that is commonly quoted (to my knowledge, Amara himself never gave as concise a quote as the paraphrase) is:

"We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run."

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara