[golergka]

I'm buffled. On one hand, HN users love to upvote articles about how evil companies in US lay off local workers for bogus reasons only to replace them with "cheap labour" through H1Bs and outsourcing. On the other hand, this.

Dear average HN reader — I assume you're a software developer in US and often from Bay area. You realize that after this happens, your wage will reduce, may be twofold, right?

[StudyAnimal]

I am a software development manager from Europe. Right now we have to turn down projects because we don't have enough people. If we have more people we can start more projects and make more money. My wages will go up as I will have a larger team to manage. The developers in the team already will get more seniority as people come in from overseas "below" most of them. Their wages might go up. Some of them that might not perform as well as the new arrivals might get paid less. Overall, the market might not be as flexible as the labor supply, so we might a reduction in wages over the mid term. This would be a correction in my eyes. I think western workers are overpaid and third world workers are underpaid, so it seems fair to see a natural adjustment here.

[learc83]

> Overall, the market might not be as flexible as the labor supply, so we might a reduction in wages over the mid term.

If you allow unlimited immigration, you will be flooded with millions of programmers. There will be a tremendous reduction in wages.

>My wages will go up as I will have a larger team to manage.

Why do you think you'll still have a job, surely in the millions of people who are clamoring to come to your country there will be many who are willing to do your job much cheaper. Managers aren't immune to competition.

>I think western workers are overpaid and third world workers are underpaid, so it seems fair to see a natural adjustment here.

Do you think you are overpaid, or just the people working below you?

[StudyAnimal]

Those "millions" of programmers had work in their own countries I presume. Long before a small fraction of these "millions" get around to leaving and moving to the west, the market would have stabilized a bit. Wages would raise there as the supply drops below demand. Eventually we will see "millions" of western developers taking a small paycut to move to Romania or Maruitius or wherever for lifestyle reasons. I hope someone will come here to replace my job for much cheaper, I am sick of it. It would take them a while to train up though, and by the time they are ready to take over, I will be ready to move on to something else. All these new programmers will need someone to support, train, manage, lead, and coordinate them.

Yes I am overpaid on a global scale. Underpaid on a local scale heh. Now what we need is millions of people here earning less than me.. That should put prices down...

[learc83]

>Those "millions" of programmers had work in their own countries I presume. Long before a small fraction of these "millions" get around to leaving and moving to the west, the market would have stabilized a bit.

There was a poll recently that estimated about 30 million people from India and China alone want to move to the US permanently (the number of people willing to relocate temporarily is much higher).

Even with depressed wages, developed countries have many quality of life benefits that will immediately attract many more people than you seem to think. Yes millions may be a bit hyperbolic for your own country, but for US that's likely accurate.

>Wages would raise there as the supply drops below demand.

Wages would likely not rise there because a huge fraction of software created in developing countries is done as outsourced work from developed countries. The demand for offshore work will dry up as wages drop in developed countries. That will encourage even more workers to immigrate to developed countries.

>Long before a small fraction of these "millions" get around to leaving and moving to the west, the market would have stabilized a bit.

You have no evidence for this. It's just wishful thinking.

>Eventually we will see "millions" of western developers taking a small paycut to move to Romania or Maruitius or wherever for lifestyle reasons.

How long is eventually? There's no way to know, it could be decades before labor markets stabilize.

>I hope someone will come here to replace my job for much cheaper, I am sick of it.

That makes no sense. Why don't you just quit?

[ricksplat]

Point-by-point responses "in-line" is just just the type of engagement I'd expect from a "business" type.

It's a style of small-minded nit-picking that shows a desire to defeat a conflicting point of view at all cost, by pulling at threads, without really engaging in the debate at hand.

It is quite a lot of effort to reassemble any relevant points and so to respond in less disrespectful fashion.

I won't be doing that, but I will respond on your single position that the parent post has "no evidence" for their postulation, and that it's "just wishful thinking". TFA was entirely in such a vein (a fanciful pipe dream), and your arguments in support are but notional, based on a wished for outcome that would suit yourself.

[kspaans]

> If you allow unlimited immigration, you will be flooded with millions of programmers. There will be a tremendous reduction in wages.

I don't think this looks at the whole picture. Programmers aren't commodities. If there are indeed programmers skilled enough to take high paying jobs, why haven't they already been hired and brought into the country? Or are you trying to say that the majority of companies hiring developers will lower their standards in order to reduce their expenses? (I can't see AmaGoogFaceSoft doing this, however.)

[learc83]

> If there are indeed programmers skilled enough to take high paying jobs, why haven't they already been hired and brought into the country?

Immigration caps. You don't think that there are millions of programmers in less developed countries capable of handling high paying jobs in developed countries? China and India alone have over 2 billion people. They have plenty of competent programmers who want to move to the west.

Why do you think big companies like google are pushing to lift the H-1B visa cap--it's because they want to do exactly what you propose hire them and bring them into the country.

[ricksplat]

It's funny how management figures often appoint themselves "above" the actual value-producing actors in a business. I myself am a software developer working in a European country, and I've been in many situations where we have "work" coming out our ears and these "business" types have us frequently run ragged getting us to "do whatever it takes" to "get it over the line" [Quotes in this sentence not meant to convey my contempt for work/business/delivery, more that how these terms are often loosely interpreted] - only then to never get paid. And never mind the costs associated with this: Up front development, deployment costs, support costs - the last two for instance often greatly inflated because of short cuts taken in the first.

I'm all for management, and "good management" at that - as a business owner I would welcome increased competition for management positions also. All to often you just have to take the people you can get for these roles, and all to frequently they're just guys with "business degrees" (or worse, failed engineers - the "Peter Principle" comes to mind) with little management talent.

The point that western workers are overpaid is particularly grandiose, since I've seen a number of statistics recently that describe how management grades in particular have enjoyed a fine increase over the last ten years or so, relative to the rest of the workforce.

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-leadership/wp/2015/03...

- http://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/03/pay-gap-between-bosses-and-wo...

- http://www.haygroup.com/en/press/pay-gap-between-senior-mana...

- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-04/not-so-fast-those-r...

[StudyAnimal]

Yep its all bullshit that is why I put "below" in speechmarks like that.

[reitanqild]

Don't blame it just on lack of people. Hiring is utterly broken with recruiters and managers sitting in front, tilting their heads asking: I see it is X years since you programmed Y[0] - are you sure you can handle this?

[0]: old, mostly stable language that I have used a lot on my spare time in between

[jordanb]

I'm pretty critical about the H1-B/L1 systems but my biggest problem with them are the restrictions they place on the visa-holders and the power they give the employer over the employee.

This affects me because I compete in a market where a substantial portion of my colleagues are modern-day indentured servants. This affects my working conditions, compensation and opportunities.

With respect to your point, I think it's valid but I don't think it's as simplistic as more local engineers == less pay. For one thing, we're already competing in a global environment -- software crosses borders easily. For another, the labor pool is never zero sum because more people consume more resources and demand labor. OTOH I don't think unilaterally throwing open American borders would work very well and I think the position of this article is naive and idealistic.

[sanxiyn]

Thankfully, Triplebyte is attempting to fix H1-B problems: http://blog.triplebyte.com/gaming-the-h-1b-system-for-good

[golergka]

> With respect to your point

My point is merely observing how the public opinion on HN contradicts itself. I would actually want to get H1B some time later in life.

[mahyarm]

To a point. The cost of living is pretty high and the area very anti-development. People move away from the bay because it's less profitable if you want a family compared to boston, seattle, austin or even new york. The cost of living and interview requirements alone will limit the wage decrease. There are many developers out there already in the USA, who just don't want to move to the bay area.

[kspaans]

There are a lot of assumptions there that may or may not be true. Are the incoming immigrants of equal skill to current local workers? If so, why shouldn't a company be able to hire an equally capable worker who is willing to work for a lower salary. On the other hand, will the incoming immigrants want lower salaries than locals? And if they are generally lower skilled, do you want to work for a company that is willing to compromise on output quality?

[humbertomn]

Really? What if some of these immigrants create more successful startups (like many have done before), generating x new jobs and even some "Netflix"s, paying really high salaries?

[reitanqild]

Last time I saw anyone tried to pull this card their stats were thoroughly debunked. I don't have access (or time) but thread carefully.

Edit: added "I saw"

[golergka]

You assume that my comment defends one of this positions. It does not.

I merely observe how the popular opinion on HN contradicts itself.