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by vonmoltke 3885 days ago
> it's clear that he does in fact think the odds of success are higher without VC

I think what is clear is that the odds of success are higher for the type of business VCs are not interested in. VCs may be better than those numbers at choosing the winners from that pile, but what of all the "VC-pattern" business that get passed over and almost inevitably fail as a result?
1 comments
morgante 3885 days ago
> I think what is clear is that the odds of success are higher for the type of business VCs are not interested in.

Not to me. Would you mind providing any evidence to support that point?

In my experience, the vast majority of so-called "lifestyle businesses" and "small businesses" do fail.

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vonmoltke 3884 days ago
Whoops, misworded that. I meant to say it's clear he thinks the odds of success are higher. It was supposed to be a direct counterpoint to your interpretation.

That said, I do think the odds of success are higher for a non-VC-pattern business. I do not have hard numbers or any sort, though. Of course, it depends on what you consider "success". A VC company has a nice, fairly-cleanly-defined success point in the exit. What is "success" for a business run as a going concern without an exit as a target?

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