[vonmoltke]

Whoops, misworded that. I meant to say it's clear he thinks the odds of success are higher. It was supposed to be a direct counterpoint to your interpretation.

That said, I do think the odds of success are higher for a non-VC-pattern business. I do not have hard numbers or any sort, though. Of course, it depends on what you consider "success". A VC company has a nice, fairly-cleanly-defined success point in the exit. What is "success" for a business run as a going concern without an exit as a target?