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user: bturtel created: 2019-08-31 karma: 156 Founder & CEO @ Lightning Rod Labs - www.lightningrod.ai Writing - bturtel.substack.com submissions: A small economic forecaster trained from raw Fed PDFs beat GPT-5 5 points | 0 comments Show HN: Open-source LLM and dataset for sports forecasting (Pro Golf) 7 points | 0 comments 0 points | 0 comments Show HN: Trained an LLM to predict "What will Trump do?" 10 points | 2 comments What can't be automated? The Last Human Bottleneck 2 points | 0 comments Future-as-Label: Scalable Supervision from Real-World Outcomes 17 points | 0 comments TMLR: Outcome-Based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future 4 points | 1 comments Natural Selection Is Already Shaping AI 2 points | 0 comments Flooding the AI Frontier 2 points | 0 comments Foresight-32B Beats Frontier LLMs on Live Polymarket Predictions 6 points | 0 comments Why Apple Will (Eventually) Win AI 7 points | 0 comments Outcome-Based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future 99 points | 15 comments What remains scarce post-AGI? 1 points | 1 comments Why humans are still much better than AI at forecasting the future 5 points | 1 comments 0 points | 0 comments 0 points | 0 comments 0 points | 0 comments LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future 176 points | 86 comments Show HN: Sculptor – Python library for LLM structured data extraction (MIT) 9 points | 0 comments 0 points | 0 comments 0 points | 0 comments 0 points | 0 comments 0 points | 0 comments 0 points | 0 comments 0 points | 0 comments Show HN: Pensive – AI mental health coaching backed by science 8 points | 2 comments 0 points | 0 comments