[lambdasquirrel]

Can I call horseshit on HN again? The Strait of Malacca (which is close by) would be on par with the Panama Canal or Suez. The South China Sea is not a transit point for goods in the same manner, and is not as important.

When you look at China's claims in comparison with everyone else's claims, (especially Vietnam's), it does not look that outlandish, and everyone in the region effectively wants to be able to say "these are our waters you're passing through." The actors in this region are not as innocent as you would think they are.

http://pages.stolaf.edu/asiaforecast2014/portfolio/sino-viet...

You have to trace back to Japanese actions before WWII and look at the geopolitical insecurity of these countries in order to understand these motivations, and then recognize that China does what it does because it does not think that the powers-that-be will be able or willing to defend its economic interests in the future. The only reason why China seems scary is because it would appear as if it can actually build up and defend its claims, unlike everyone else, but even then, it doesn't have a blue water navy like the United States. They can't instigate an area denial attack on these claims without strangling their own economy either, so it's kind of a tempest in a teapot.

[qiqing]

This. Thank you for being a voice of reason. Historical context is so important here, especially the lessons China learned the hard way. Like just what the U.S., U.K., France, and other countries can do to you if you show weakness.

[cowardlydragon]

Our blue water navy would be at the bottom of the ocean in the first day if any of them are in ICBM range of China in a war.

The navy has zero defenses that can stop a 1970s ballistic antiship missle.

[greedo]

Well, considering the range of an ICBM is by definition "intercontinental," your caution is a bit misplaced. First, the DF-21d isn't an ICBM, it's approx unclassified range is 900 miles.

And of course the USN has defenses. First are soft defenses like ECM, followed by AEGIS and SM3.

Not only are there defenses against the missile themselves, but it's not like the navy would just sit idle while being targeted. They'd work the entire kill chain, and most of this is assuming that the DF-21 can even find the carriers...

[lambdasquirrel]

Agreed. There's a lot of frickin' ocean, and they'd have to saturate it, one missile for every 20 sq. miles, in order to have a hope of hitting a carrier. That's assuming the USN ships don't try to shoot down said missiles. They've got a lot of missiles, but not that much. China can talk trash all they want, but there's not much they can do–or would want to do, really.

The fact is, the United States is effectively guaranteeing the trade lanes for everyone. They have not tried to own the oceans for themselves as others did. They have not tried to own resources or markets for themselves the way the Europeans did in the age of mercantilism.

China does what it does out of paranoia. And because people have been jerks to them in the past. But they know that what they have is not effective for waging expansionist war. Those missiles could make it really, really hurt if the United States were to try to take a military action against the Chinese mainland, because that would place a number of CBGs in close proximity to the mainland, where it'd be much easier to track and launch said missiles at them. A more ambitious project would be to cut off American support for Taiwan, and that would be a much longer-term issue for both sides, and one that is not abetted by these islands.

As for the islands, there isn't even any military value in holding them. They are a military liability rather than an asset. Unlike Guam, etc., they are not useful as a staging point, because the range of modern ships makes them kind of useless as a staging or refueling point. They are small–they don't even have fresh water–and thus they are easy to saturate with a few cruise missiles (the USN has 3000 tomahawks in inventory, last I checked?), so, forget about trying to put serious static defenses there. When you look at the fluff, yea, it seems alarming, and that's what it's for. It's politics. The Chinese are doing it because they know the Vietnamese and the Filipinos can't, and the U.S. will just #facepalm and mostly go back to staring at maps of the Middle East the next month, in spite of all the talk of an Asian pivot.