[DarkTree]

It does seem like the article may have conveniently evaded that news. However, that doesn't mean there isn't a looming threat to the coffee supply.

The fact that Brazil may have an exceptionally good year, only means that it is likely to have a less-exceptional year after that, due to regression to the mean. If the climate does start to negatively impact the more tertiary coffee growing regions, Brazil will not be able to bolster the entire coffee demand.

Also: I can only assume that growing overall population = higher demand for coffee

[yellowapple]

> The fact that Brazil may have an exceptionally good year, only means that it is likely to have a less-exceptional year after that, due to regression to the mean.

Isn't that a Monte Carlo fallacy? One outcome in a sequence of tests does not mean that others are more likely in the future. If you flip a coin and get 10 heads in a row, your likelihood of getting a tails on the next flip (assuming a perfectly-balanced coin) is still 50%. Brazil's good year may be another case of climate change for all we know, and could very well persist for awhile; or, you might be right and next year things will balance out again. We don't know either way yet.

That isn't to say that we shouldn't be concerned regardless; you're correct in your observation that having all our figurative, coffee-flavored eggs in one basket - even if that basket is the size of Brazil - is rarely a good idea.

[DarkTree]

Yeah, you're right, we certainly won't know until hindsight shows up.

> "One outcome in a sequence of tests does not mean that others are more likely in the future. If you flip a coin and get 10 heads in a row, your likelihood of getting a tails on the next flip (assuming a perfectly-balanced coin) is still 50%"

True, but I am arguing that out of 10 flips, the average number of heads will likely be 50%. If you got 10 heads in a row, that would be 100%, an exceptional event, possibly like Brazil's good year. However, if you were to flip 10 more coins, it is much more likely that you will get less than 100% heads flips, as it will regress closer to the mean of 50%.

I guess the main point I was arguing is that just because Brazil might have a good outlook in the future, does not mean the article is invalid and too presumptuous.

[debacle]

> If you flip a coin and get 10 heads in a row, your likelihood of getting a tails on the next flip (assuming a perfectly-balanced coin) is still 50%.

If you flip a FAIR coin, your odds are still 50%. If I flip a coin and get heads 10 times in a row, I'm betting heads for that 11th flip.

[_0ffh]

Yeah, sure, but also the bookie will give you crappy odds on that bet! :)

[yellowapple]

Aight, you got me there :)