[braythwayt]

> How many of you developed iPhone apps? Us? Over a dozen. How many of you are developing Apple Watch apps. Us? Zero. No interest in working for Apple for free.

I think this is the best point you’ve made. If we throw every other argument out, we’re left with the simple fact that the watch follows the phone, and the market for phone software has already commoditized itself into the toilet.

iOS is a dog’s breakfast. So what’s the lure for writing watch software? That the first players in have the least zeroth chance of becoming the next unicorn, one of the few apps actually turning into a sustainable business?

There will be exceptions, but I feel safe in predicting that most successful watch apps will be free or nearly fee accessories for some other business model, like ride sharing.

“Commoditize your complements.”—Joel Spolsky

Apple is the watch. Your software is the complementary product they will inexorably commoditize.

[rebootthesystem]

> I think this is the best point you’ve made. If we throw every other argument out, we’re left with the simple fact that the watch follows the phone, and the market for phone software has already commoditized itself into the toilet.

Probably so. Many of the developers who will reject what I am saying are not, at the same time, devoting life and treasure to the development of apps for the watch. The iPhone was very different. It was a gold rush. Many made millions selling fart apps. Most --the vast majority-- lost their shirts. And, having learned their lessons they remain cautious or completely uninterested when it comes to the watch.

One of the huge angles is that of the leash to the iPhone. This is the same reason I just bought my son a stand alone GPS for his car. Google and Apple maps and nav require network connectivity. Amazingly enough I've been in places not too far from home where we can't raise WiFi or a cell connection. Your great phone-based navigation software breaks down very quickly when you can't "phone home" for map updates.