[Shinkei]

Trump? I'd love to see the odds on that bet. Mere name recognition alone does not a successful candidate make. In fact, he's already proven his loose lips will sink his primary ship long before it sailed. He successfully angered Latinos and veterans--two groups that any Republican candidate will need to win at the polls.

[georgemcbay]

Trump almost seems to just be trolling at this point and not seriously trying to win the Presidency (or the nomination), the McCain remarks which he keeps doubling down on are just insane.

FWIW, I wouldn't put a lot of money on Sanders either, not because I think he'd be a bad choice (IMO he is the only rational choice of the credible and currently announced candidates) but just because he's not particularly charismatic (which matters, unfortunately), he's pretty old and he's easy to label a socialist, which is still sadly about the worst thing you can be labeled as (short of being an "ISIS terrorist") in the minds of a lot of the demographics in America that actually show up to vote.

[jahmed]

Some of the latest polling data shows Trump at or leading Bush. If anything, Republican primary voters will really respond to his rhetoric. They eat up the Only True Conservative vs RINOs narrative.

[philwelch]

Polling data in the July before an election has close to zero predictive power. Last time around, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich had similar periods of being the front runner before they were dismissed by voters.

[tsotha]

Sanders has no better chance than Trump. We're deep into decimal digit territory here.