I wish we would kill flash by providing a stronger solution. Does any application exist today that can replicate the functionality of even Flash MX (now 11 years old) in HTML5? An actual application that could be given to non-developers and not a series of javascript libraries.
Writing games in AS3 is actually pretty nice. It will run on any OS/Browser that has the Flash plugin installed, without compatibility issues, and can export to all the major mobile devices as apps.
Flash for desktop browsers, apps for mobile devices, even Adobe agrees on that. And if you just have a simple website, make it in HTML5 (Adobe also agrees on that)
People confuse website content (which should be built on HTML5, I agree) with rich 'clients' such as games. If you want to build games for the web, good luck with HTML5.
First, you can only do so much with flash without writing code. And ActionScript 3 looked pretty similar to javascript anyway.
But more importantly, we should decouple the idea of Flash the authoring tool and Flash the runtime. I believe Flash the authoring tool already allows you to output to HTML 5 rather than an SWF file. So you can have all the benefits of flash authoring, without the drawbacks (killing your customer's batteries).
Then there's Shumway (Mozilla's JS based flash runtime).
There are already lots of alternatives to the nasty Flash runtime.
So you can have all the benefits of flash authoring, without the drawbacks (killing your customer's batteries).
How true is the battery thing today, really?
Objectively, on my relatively powerful workstation PC, watching Flash videos using Flash widgets on web sites doesn't tend to bump either CPU or GPU frequencies up noticeably.
In contrast, watching HTML5 video can cause either or both to go way up, with consequent extra power consumption, temperature rises, fan noise, etc. And all these trendy modern animations and canvas/SVG effects in browsers that are replacing some of what Flash used to be used for apparently require more effort from that workstation-class hardware than literally doing full-screen real-time 3D rendering in a graphics application.
Of course it's possible that this is just dodgy graphics drivers -- I do have an extremely low opinion of AMD's supposedly premium products since I've actually used some of them -- but those same dodgy drivers are there when using Flash too, and it can still play videos without raising the ambient room temperate by multiple degrees.
Well hardware decoding of flash video has improved over the years, but I can tell you that while I can play 1080p hi def videos without seeing much bump in my CPU (on the laptop), when my aluminum macbook pro is freezing cold to put on my lap in the winter, nothing warms it up as fast as playing a random youtube video with Flash.
Shameless plug: we've been building Tumult Hype over the past 4 years because we knew there'd need to be an HTML5 toolchain to let designers accomplish what they once did with Flash:
As with Java, the problem is not Flash per se but the browser plugin implementing SWF runtime. Flash can and probably will live long and prosper as the Flash "creator" app will switch to generating JavaScript+HTML5 istead of SWF.
Flash for desktop browsers, apps for mobile devices, even Adobe agrees on that. And if you just have a simple website, make it in HTML5 (Adobe also agrees on that)
People confuse website content (which should be built on HTML5, I agree) with rich 'clients' such as games. If you want to build games for the web, good luck with HTML5.