[dllthomas]

Your broader point - that we're a lot more likely to find useful things using some guidance as to where useful things are likely to be than in proceeding randomly - is important.

A crucial difference between digging for oil and doing math, however, is the nature of the externalities. In either case, you're burning some work that could be spent somewhere better, but with oil you're left with a hole that you probably want not to be there and there's no good way to put it back. In both drilling and math, "drilling" helps us refine our methods. In the case of math exploring more of the ramifications of our axioms also helps raise our confidence that they're not subtly inconsistent.

And of course, math is generally less expensive than an oil well.

I don't know where the cost-benefit analysis puts work on math when we don't yet see practical application. And I think that's often over-romanticized. However, I do think there are a lot of reasons we should expect the analysis to come out more favorably than for drilling random holes.