[blufox]

From The little book of common sense investing by John Bogle.

"Thus, the recent era not only has failed to erode, but has nicely enhanced the lifetime record of the world’s first index fund—now known as Vanguard 500 Index Fund. Let me be specific: at a dinner on September 20, 2006, celebrating the 30th anniversary of the fund’s initial public offering, the counsel for the fund’s underwriters reported that he had purchased 1,000 shares at the original offering price of $15.00 per share—a $15,000 investment. He proudly announced that the value of his holding that evening (including shares acquired through reinvesting the fund’s dividends and distributions over the years) was $461,771. "

[sharkweek]

For some absolutely insane reason I sometimes get the feeling that I can outpick a fund with individual stocks, because "Hey, I follow this whole tech world really closely! Surely I can pick some big winners!"

It has been a somewhat expensive lesson that I have absolutely no clue what's going on, but every once in a while I just can't help but try. I keep a little fun money in individual equities, and the rest now sits safely in funds. My aggregate individual funds always lose out to what has been relatively steady fund performance.

[maaku]

I suggest doing what I do: invest your time in speculative bets (startups), and invest your take-home pay in index funds.

[kelukelugames]

I too enjoy gambling with my life savings.

[dwaltrip]

That comes out to about 12% per year, compounded. Makes sense given the huge multi-decade bull market that began in the early 80s (2006 - 30 years = 1976).

But certainly not something you can rely on. For comparison, with a 5% annual return, you get $64k. With an 8% annual return, you get $150k.

[maaku]

S&P gains since inception are on the order of 11%. It is something you can rely upon (see: Trinity study on portfolio survivability https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_study)