[ninkendo]

Self driving cars are essentially a software project (and more) and I've never heard of a software project having an estimate that far out and ever being even close to making its deadline.

My personal opinion is that self-driving cars that are reliable enough to literally not have a steering wheel will be perpetually a "few years away", similar to how we're always saying nuclear fusion or true AI is just a few decades off. It's like the 80/20 rule but more like 99/1... That last 1% of capabilities required to make cars truly driverless are going to take 99% of the effort.