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by todd8 4011 days ago
There is an important oversimplification that these formulas/programs/spreadsheets often make, and I see it happening here. Consider two alternatives where everything is the same except the amount of money used for the mortgage down payment. The formula assume that money not used for the down payment is invested at a certain rate of return. If the mortgage interest rate is greater than the investment return, then the formula always indicate that the largest down payment possible should be made and if the rate of return for investments is assumed to be greater than the mortgage interest rate then the smallest possible down payment should be made.

Its easiest to understand the problem with specific numbers. Assume a home buyer has $120,000 that could be put into a down payment, but that the minimum required is only $20,000. What should the buyer do? Assume that the investment rate of return is 5% and the mortgage rate is 4%. Investing the $100,000 instead of using it for the down payment is essentially borrowing $100,000 at 4% and investing it at 5%. All the formulas/worksheets/programs like this one and even professional investment advisors will end up showing that is better to put down the minimum down payment and investing the $100,000. This ignores the risk between alternatives. Putting the $100,000 into the down payment produces a guaranteed, riskless, return the buyer of 4% per year (by saving him or her the mortgage interest payments on the $100,000). The 5% potential return from investing the money isn't a fair comparison. The comparison needs to be made to a riskless investment (e.g. US Treasury Bills). Currently the riskless rate of return available to investors is approximately 0%. This means that in the current environment the correct alternative is to put the $100,000 extra into the down payment (absent any liquidity concerns).

One may say that they are willing to take some risks to obtain a higher rate of return. Modern Portfolio Theory has its detractors, but as far as home buyers are concerned, its implications are still apropos. Having one component of your overall portfolio earning the equivalent of a riskless 4% (by making the larger mortgage down payment) is likely to produce better aggregate returns (on the home and additional equities etc.) at whatever risk tolerance one designs for their overall finances.

I have no formal training in finance or investing so none of what I've described here should be interpreted as advice, instead it is intended to spur discussion.

2 comments

Another point is that the idiom "a penny saved is a penny earned" is incorrect when it comes to loans and investments, because you pay tax on income. A penny saved is worth more than a penny earned.

If I borrow at 4% and invest the same sum at 4%, then I'm guaranteed to lose money on the deal. How much more your investments have to yield, in order to break even on a loan-to-invest strategy depends on the degree of tax liability that your investments are subject to.

There is risk in the mortgage as well though. The value of the house could drop.
Isn't that only a risk if you need to sell the house at a time when the value is below what you paid?

Buying houses for shorter terms is just more risky, period. The housing market can crap out in catastrophic ways. Just like the stock market. The risk aversi

It would be an unrealized loss if you were living in a house with a mortgage bigger than the value of the house, so long as you pay though, you've still got a house to live your life in.

There isn't though, this calculation doesn't consider valuation of the home at sale time. What this considers is, how much could that money earn you in investments vs how much will you save in interest payments over the life of the loan.

What this does assume is that you'll live in the house long enough for the interest savings to catch up with investment gains.

that's not really part of the equation.

If you make the minimum down payment, and the value of the house drops, you're still on the hook for the full value at the time you took out the loan.

Once you've secured your mortgage, your payment plan (and therefore debt) has nothing to do with the value of the house.