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This might be one of those situations where the simplest and cheapest way to figure out if something will work for you is to just try it for a bit. You can always stop, but right now you're at risk of data loss. Perfect is the enemy of good, worse is better, etc. Consider: Your current approach is basically to model the problem, evaluate the model, and then decide whether to use the service. That approach seems to protect you from risk, but it really doesn't. As you've noted, there isn't an existing model, which makes the modeling-first approach too expensive. As a result, you don't have backups, which is riskier that one or two months of abnormally expensive tarsnap service. Your deciding factor is probably the long-term cost. You can ballpark that by paying only a month or two and extrapolating. That should relatively cheap in absolute terms. Most numbers are not outliers, so you're unlikely to be very surprised. You would probably know already if you're atypical in some way. Even if it turns out you'd have an abnormally high cost, figuring that out by evaluating the service will be cheaper that building a model. Perhaps you're worried that the costs are fine right now but will grow too high over time. If so, that'll happen relatively slowly, over the course of a month or two at the fastest. At worst, you'll have to delete some backups or switch to a difference service. That might be annoying, but it won't be overly expensive and it's unlikely to even happen. If it does, at least you will have had affordable backups in the meantime. Right now, you're at risk. |