[chris-hexx]

"few elements can be modeled perfectly by human beings." "Our models of the world have gotten better — which means that our ability to predict the world has gotten better." Paraphrasing: "My friend knows more topics in greater depth than I do, but I think his opinions on metacognitive strategies as applied to things he knows about are naive."

For someone who is trying very hard to spew a bunch of Bayesian tribal signals, the author appears unduly confident in his mastery of that art.

[enkiv2]

I don't see any bayesian language here. Could you point to some examples?

[chris-hexx]

Bayesian in the sense of the so-called Cult of Bayes, who seek to apply formal reasoning methods to optimize personal knowledge bases and outcomes. See also: Eliezer Yudkowsky,http://lesswrong.com/ .