[beat]

Look at it this way... older founders may be less likely to create a unicorn, but they're more likely to create a business.

[fsk]

I'm more interested in starting a business that has a 90% chance of being worth $10M than a business that has a 1% chance of being worth $1B.

A business that has a 90% chance of being worth $10M isn't suitable for VC.

[balls187]

Perhaps I'm missing something, but the expected value is higher on the 1% chance for 1B

[fsk]

As a founder, you only get to invest in one business at a time, so the high chance of $10M is worth more than the longshot chance of $1B. Even if the latter has higher EV, the former has higher average quality-of-life EV.

Working as an employee vs owning a $10M business is a BIG lifestyle jump. From $10M to $1B, not as much.