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by brenschluss 4037 days ago
> These cultural dependencies result in a demand distribution for travel that roughly fits a power law profile. The demand for near travel (x > 0) is exponentially greater than further travel (y > x).

But don't you think you're failing to account for cultural dependencies that arise as a result of travel possibilities? Of different types of travel altogether?

For example, a 45 min subway commute is average in NYC [1]; as a result, going 30 min on the subway to meet someone who lives an hour away is not a big deal whatsoever. Since Metrocard costs don't vary by distance or time, and you have 8 million people used to lengthly amounts of subway travel, inter-city friends and relationships are more varied and spread out over space. [2]

If we assume that the Hyperloop is _not_ a railroad, or an airplane, and will have different types of time/distance payoffs, then we would have to assume a different form of demand curve altogether. For example: Japan's high speed trains -- and most importantly, their extreme reliability (like, to-the-minute) -- make long-distance commute a completely viable mode of transit. When high-speed trains are so reliable, you can have 9 minute transfer overlaps between two different trains going hundreds of kilometers, expanding range due to the UX, so to speak, of travel. It's qualitatively different than just a faster Amtrak or a slower plane.

[1] http://www.capitalnewyork.com/sites/default/files/Embargoed%... [2] http://observer.com/2015/05/the-social-commute-how-the-big-s...