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by the_why_of_y 4042 days ago
The problem with the labor shortage was less that there was insufficient free labor available, but rather that the wages that would be demanded by free labor under these circumstances would be much higher than the subsistence level required by slaves, which would reduce the profitability for the upper-class plantation owners.

Evsey Domar wrote a famous paper in 1970, arguing that slavery/serfdom may be instituted when there is a lot of available land and few available workers, citing episodes in Europe in the Middle Ages, Russia's eastward expansion, and the US South.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domar_serfdom_model