[konsptheory]

Contrary to popular belief and urban myths, the market in which Apple operates is ripe for commoditization and iPod and most recently iPad sales are the best proofs now for my assertion.

Forward looking, I'd be really very surprised to see Apple staying relevant in tech in the next decade as the smartphone revolution fades away and the novelty factor they enjoy or make up as well as market dominance will follow suit.

[gress]

The iPod and iPad markets have not commoditized.

[asveikau]

Android tablets exceed iPads in market share. 61.9% in 2013 according to a quick google search.

[gress]

That's misleading because it includes a large number of android based video players in Asia, which are not competitors to the iPad as general purpose tablets.

[asveikau]

Yeah, man, that "Asia" place, it like, doesn't count. And who's heard of this "Europe", anyway? It sounds made up. I guess the reality distortion field doesn't have the range to reach there.

[gress]

It has nothing to do with 'Asia' or 'Europe'. It has to do with saying a 7" android based video player is a competitor to the iPad.

[asveikau]

Just seemed to me like you're going around dismissing continents, redefining the product category when faced with opposing evidence. Perhaps in 2010 iPad was the only game in town but Android tablets have shot up since then. I've seen it with my own eyes and ears, but yes, when I googled for data I saw that I am not wrong.

[konsptheory]

Yes, it's a work in progress

[gress]

No it isn't. Neither market has been overtaken by commodity products at all. Your argument about Apple products being commoditized is totally without merit. The Mac and iPhone continue to gain share in markets that have commodity alternatives. The iPad sales have slowed but they haven't slowed as much as the commodity alternatives. iPod sales have slowed not because people are buying commodity MP3 players instead, but because people are no longer buying standalone MP3 players.

[konsptheory]

The tablet market and more importantly its poster boy the iPad (the notebook killer lol) have been swallowed by two beasts simultaneously, from the bottom up, larger size smartphones, and from the top down, hybrid notebooks like the Surface/Yoga that integrated the touch based interface and generally speaking more capable devices not toys.

The MP3 player market and iPods in particular have been swallowed and cannibalized to Apple's discontent by their smartphones and their peers again.

So, it doesn't look rosy for Apple as it's becoming more and more a one trick pony with one single dominant product while the rest are suffering or in steadfast decline and when you take into account that the saturation point for smartphones is approaching, you'll realize that they will need to bring up REALLY something new or face the fate every tech company finds itself sailing the ship through the stagnation storm just to get alive.

[gress]

I agree that larger smartphones attract buyers who otherwise might have bought a tablet, but there is zero evidence that hybrid notebooks have affected the iPad.

There isn't even evidence that the overall trend foe the iPad is lower growth - just that the upgrade cycle is slower.

As for a 'one-trick pony', that statement is certainly false, as Apple has multiple growing product lines.

Also, saturation for smartphones may be approaching in a few markets, but saturation for the iPhone is much much further off, so your prophecy of decline is empty as yet.